Sub-Saharan GDP Growth Rate To Stagnate at 2.60% As Ethiopia Overtakes Kenya

By Juma Fred / October 11, 2017




The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that the total GDP growth of the Sub-saharan region will remain unchanged at 2.60 percent in 2017 and 2018.

In its World Economic Outlook (WEO) report, the global institutions slightly revised upwards the global economic growth rate to 3.6 percent and 3.7 percent in 2017 and 2018 respectively.

In the report, most economies around the globe, both developed and developing, are registering a weakened growth in their economies with most of them being affected by below-target inflation.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, Angola has emerged as the leading economy and developing the market with its growth in 2017 being put at 1.5 and projected to grow at 1.6 points in 2018.

According to the report, the top ten vibrant and emerging markets and developing economies include Angola, Benin, Botswana, Burkina Faso, Burundi, Cabo Verde, Cameroon, Central African Republic and Chad.

What is more interesting from the report is that Kenya is slowly falling from her East African Economic Powerhouse throne with the position now being assumed by Ethiopia.

Read: Treasury downgrades 2017 economic outlook 5.1pc from 5.9pc

In East Africa, Ethiopia is the leading emerging market and developing the economy with her growth being placed at 8.5 in 2017 and projected to grow at the same point in 2018.

Ethiopia overtook Kenya in the month of May, with the World Bank saying that the country had opened a gap of 29 million US Dollars over Kenya. The World Bank further predicted that Ethiopia’s economy will be the most expansive on the continent in 2017.

Kenya has been moved to the second position after Ethiopia with 5.8 points with a projection of 5.0 in 2018. Kenya’s 2017 growth rate was also revised downwards by 30bps to 5.0 percent which in economic analysts view, Genghis Capital Investment Bank, has been guided by:

Protracted electioneering period which has delayed public gross fixed capital formation, Slowdown in private sector credit growth Knock-on effect on the drought that was marked in 4Q16 and 1Q17.

Rwanda is at position three, followed by Tanzania and Uganda as shown in the image below:


The political situation in Kenya has continued having its toll on the stock market at the NSE with activities slowing down further with deals closed centred on the 10-year tenors.

The medium-term was quiet with weak demand at 12.50 percent levels and above. Secondary market executions fell on the NSE to 775 million shillings with 60 percent of the turnover on the long-end of the yield curve.

Demand on the long-end remains strong above the resistance level of 13 percent, but with a widening bid/ask spread, while the limited supply available has moved to 12.90 percent levels and below.

The regulator came in yesterday to fund the market through reverse repos offering 7 billion shillings and receiving only 350 million shillings in bids which they picked at 10.05 percent. It is curious that they participated in the market yesterday for a higher amount than on Monday’s session, despite a falling overnight lending rate which has been coming off to levels below 8 percent.



About Juma Fred

Juma Fredrick is an enthusiastic journalist who believes that journalism has power to change the world either negatively or positively depending on how one uses it.You can reach him on: (020) 528 0222 or Email: [email protected]

View other posts by Juma Fred


More Articles From This Author








Other Related Articles










SOKO DIRECTORY & FINANCIAL GUIDE

ARCHIVES

2018
  • January 2018 (291)
  • February 2018 (220)
  • March 2018 (279)
  • April 2018 (226)
  • May 2018 (240)
  • June 2018 (178)
  • July 2018 (257)
  • August 2018 (250)
  • September 2018 (213)
  • 2017
  • January 2017 (183)
  • February 2017 (195)
  • March 2017 (207)
  • April 2017 (104)
  • May 2017 (169)
  • June 2017 (206)
  • July 2017 (190)
  • August 2017 (196)
  • September 2017 (186)
  • October 2017 (236)
  • November 2017 (253)
  • December 2017 (266)
  • 2016
  • January 2016 (167)
  • February 2016 (165)
  • March 2016 (190)
  • April 2016 (143)
  • May 2016 (246)
  • June 2016 (183)
  • July 2016 (271)
  • August 2016 (250)
  • September 2016 (234)
  • October 2016 (191)
  • November 2016 (243)
  • December 2016 (154)
  • 2015
  • January 2015 (1)
  • February 2015 (4)
  • March 2015 (166)
  • April 2015 (109)
  • May 2015 (117)
  • June 2015 (121)
  • July 2015 (150)
  • August 2015 (157)
  • September 2015 (189)
  • October 2015 (171)
  • November 2015 (174)
  • December 2015 (208)
  • 2014
  • March 2014 (2)
  • 2013
  • March 2013 (10)
  • June 2013 (1)
  • 2012
  • March 2012 (7)
  • April 2012 (15)
  • May 2012 (1)
  • July 2012 (1)
  • August 2012 (4)
  • October 2012 (2)
  • November 2012 (2)
  • December 2012 (1)
  • 2011
    2010
    2009
    2008
    2007
    2006
    2005
    2004
    2003
    2002
    2001
    2000
    1999
    1998
    1997
    1996
    1995
    1994
    1993
    1992
    1991
    1990
    1989
    1988
    1987
    1986
    1985
    1984
    1983
    1982
    1981
    1980
    1979
    1978
    1977
    1976
    1975
    1974
    1973
    1972
    1971
    1970
    1969
    1968
    1967
    1966
    1965
    1964
    1963
    1962
    1961
    1960
    1959
    1958
    1957
    1956
    1955
    1954
    1953
    1952
    1951
    1950