A new World Bank report has found that by 2050 the worsening impacts of climate change in three densely populated regions of the world; Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Latin America could see more than 140 million people move within their countries’ borders to escape the slow-onset impacts of climate change.
The report dubbed ‘Groundswell: Preparing for Internal Climate Migration’ states that in Sub-Saharan Africa, “internal climate migrants” could number over 85 million, representing up to 4 percent of the region’s total population.
Climate migrants will move from less viable areas with lower water availability and crop productivity and from areas affected by rising sea level and storm surges. The poorest and most climate-vulnerable areas will be hardest hit.
These trends, alongside the emergence of “hotspots” of climate in- and out-migration, will have major implications for climate-sensitive sectors and for the adequacy of urban infrastructure and social support systems in both rural and urban areas.
While some climate migration cannot be avoided due to the lock-in of climate effects of past emissions, the report results also indicate that future trajectories of climate migration are not set in stone. Climate migration in Sub-Saharan Africa can have substantial development implications and the stakes are high.
Achieving a resilient society—where people can either adapt in place and thrive or migrate with dignity toward areas of higher opportunity—is an important part of meeting national development goals.
Internal climate migration may be a reality but it doesn’t have to be a crisis. Concerted action on climate change mitigation and adaptation, together with inclusive development policies and embedding climate migration into policy and planning, could help to substantially reduce the number of internal climate migrants by 2050.
The report notes that policy decisions made today will shape the extent to which the effects of climate change will be positive for migrants and their families. Inaction would mean missing a window of opportunity to reconfigure where, when, and how climate-resilient investments are made in support of robust economies
With concerted action, however, including global efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions and robust development planning at the country level – this worst-case scenario could be dramatically reduced, by as much as 80 percent, or 100 million people.