Kenyans are now staring at a possible maize crisis after Tanzania stopped issuing export permits for the grain. This is likely to further tighten the prices of the commodity and its products, which have been on a rising spree since March.
“We have been unable to get maize from Tanzania since last week after the country stopped issuing export permits to traders with the cutting off of stocks from Tanzania expected to push up the cost of flour,” said Ken Nyaga, the chairperson of the United Grain Millers Association.
Consumers have been hopeful that the price of maize would continue to contract following the onset of harvesting and the importation of the commodity from Zambia and Tanzania, which saw the price of a 90 kg bag drop to around 5,600 from a high of 6,000 shillings.
Data from the ministry of agriculture shows that Kenya imported maize valued at 4.2 billion shillings from Tanzania in 2019. Millers say the Tanzania ban will cause a domestic shortage that will revert the prices of the grain to around 5,900 shillings.
Kenya depends on imported maize to bridge the deficit. East African Uganda and Tanzania have been the key source of Kenya’s maize for decades.
In 2020, Kenya imported about 277,350 tons of maize (3.1 million 90kg bags) with about 95 percent of this coming from Uganda and Tanzania. Similarly, In January last year, Kenya imported over 450,000 bags (90kg bags) of maize from both Tanzania and Uganda.
Uganda exports at least 90 percent of its maize to Kenya with a cumulative average of 330,620 tons. However, imports from Uganda have been poor in the last couple of months as most of its stocks are heading to South Sudan, where they are fetching a better price.
The move leaves Zambia as the only key source market for the product to meet the local deficit as most stocks from Uganda, are now heading to South Sudan due to the high prices in Juba.
The Kenya Bureau of Standards (Kebs) said the maize coming in through the Namanga border has significantly declined, confirming that imports into the country at that point are originating from Zambia.
Data from the Eastern Africa Grain Council shows imports from Tanzania nearly grew five-fold in 2021 to 469,474 tons from 98,000 tons in 2020. Tanzania restricts exports to protect its local stock following poor harvests.
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