Fuel prices in Kenya could soon be headed for another upward review, raising fears of fresh pain for motorists and businesses already grappling with a high cost of living.
This comes after global crude oil prices surged to approximately Ksh 8,643 per barrel on the international market, the highest level recorded since August 2025.
Reports released on Tuesday, February 24, indicate that the rally in crude prices has largely been fueled by escalating geopolitical tensions between the United States and Iran. Iran remains one of the world’s largest crude oil exporters, and any instability involving the country tends to rattle global energy markets. Traders often react swiftly to such tensions, pushing prices higher amid concerns over possible supply disruptions.
Before the recent spike, a barrel of crude oil had been trading at about Ksh 7,700 ($60). The jump of roughly $7 per barrel in a short period signals renewed volatility in the global oil market, a development that could have ripple effects across oil-importing nations like Kenya.
In Kenya, pump prices are regulated by the Energy and Petroleum Regulatory Authority (EPRA), which conducts monthly reviews to determine the retail prices of super petrol, diesel, and kerosene. The regulator factors in global crude oil prices, the cost of importing refined petroleum products, exchange rates, and other associated expenses before announcing new rates.
The current surge in crude prices comes just days before EPRA is set to unveil the next fuel pricing schedule for the February, March cycle. This timing has heightened anxiety among consumers, as sustained high global prices during the pricing window could translate into increased pump costs locally.
Kenya is a net importer of refined petroleum products, meaning it relies heavily on the international market to meet domestic fuel demand. As a result, any increase in global crude oil prices typically raises the landing cost of fuel shipments. These higher importation costs are often passed on to consumers during the subsequent monthly review.
In its most recent pricing review, EPRA had offered motorists some welcome relief. In the announcement made on February 14, Super Petrol prices were reduced by Ksh 4.24 per litre, Diesel by Ksh 3.93, and Kerosene by Ksh 1.00.
Following the adjustment, Super Petrol began retailing at Ksh 178.28 per litre, Diesel at Ksh 166.54, and Kerosene at Ksh 152.78. The reductions were largely attributed to a drop in the average landed cost of imported refined petroleum products during the previous review period.
However, the current spike in international crude oil prices threatens to reverse those gains. If elevated prices persist throughout the pricing assessment window, Kenyans could face significant increases in the next announcement.
Beyond global crude prices, the performance of the Kenyan shilling against the U.S. dollar plays a critical role in determining pump prices. Since petroleum imports are denominated in dollars, any weakening of the shilling increases the cost of bringing fuel into the country.
A stable or strengthening shilling can help cushion consumers from global price shocks, but a depreciating currency amplifies the impact. This dual exposure, to both international oil prices and currency fluctuations leaves Kenya particularly vulnerable to global market shifts.
Rising fuel prices have far-reaching consequences beyond the pump. Higher diesel prices, for instance, increase transportation and production costs, which often lead to more expensive goods and services across the economy. Public transport fares may also rise, directly affecting household budgets.
Businesses, especially those in manufacturing, agriculture, and logistics, could experience squeezed margins if fuel costs climb sharply. In turn, these added costs are frequently passed down to consumers, potentially reigniting inflationary pressures.
As attention now turns to EPRA’s upcoming announcement, much will depend on whether global crude prices stabilize or continue their upward trajectory. For now, motorists and businesses alike are watching closely, aware that sustained international price increases could soon translate into higher costs at fuel stations nationwide.
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