Kenya’s coffee industry is at a decisive inflection point. Domestic consumption is rapidly increasing, with the Agriculture and Food Authority indicating that coffee houses have risen from just 14 in 2022 to more than 800 in 2026. The government and other industry players are also targeting the growing global market by aiming to increase production to a projected 150,000 tonnes annually over the next few years. This effort comes at a time when Kenya’s coffee production has been on a declining trend, currently in the region of 45,000 tonnes per year, which risks reducing the country’s visibility on the global coffee sourcing radar.
Globally, it is a common agricultural pattern for production to expand when prices reach record highs, a cycle that often sows the seeds for the next glut. The current momentum is supported by recent record prices, and when price cycles turn downward, it remains to be seen whether this pace of expansion will be sustained.
It also raises a critical question: how will producers remain competitive now and, in the future, during times of lower global coffee prices? Sustaining quality requires long-term investment to manage climate risks such as floods, heat waves, and drought, while also absorbing rising input costs.
Arabica trade prices are based on the New York Coffee market, a global supply-and-demand-driven pricing that gives little weightage to conditions in Kenya or the challenges producers face in growing the country’s renowned coffee. This means there will be periods when prices can be even lower than the cost of production.
Within the coffee buying space, there are discerning specialty buyers who seek high-quality coffee that is consistent, reliable, and delivered as contracted to destination warehouses, with sufficient volumes available, even at full container load scale. This segment typically operates on a fixed-price model that takes into account the cost of production and provides a fair margin for producers.
Both pathways offer market access. One is a faster route with quicker returns, while the other is a slower, longer, and more demanding path, but ultimately a more rewarding one. The choice between these two routes rests with each producer.
Scaling this rigour across the country’s coffee sector, where smallholders account for approximately 70% of production volume, represents the central challenge. It is beneficial for producers to know the quality and strengths of their coffee before offering it to the market for sale. This helps them arrive at realistic and fair price expectations. Even basic pan roasting and normal grinding at home, without expensive lab-grade equipment, is better than nothing at all. The inability of many farmers to taste their own coffee has long been a critical bottleneck. It also requires a willingness to accept lower prices for coffees that fail to meet established standards, even when financial pressures encourage the sale of marginal lots.
Producers should not expect every buyer to tell them what is “great” about their coffee. However, if there are defects, they are likely to receive prompt feedback. This is similar to situations where producers are advised to sell quickly because the market is expected to decline. Rarely does one hear advice to “hold your coffee, prices are going up.” Such realities are typical of agricultural commodity markets.
Producers often have a bias toward their produce, given the time, effort, and investment involved, and it is therefore seen as the “best quality.” This is where events such as the Kenya National Taste of Harvest cupping competitions come in to provide validation at a national level. These competitions function as industry barometers, signaling which production methods, processing techniques, and quality control measures deliver outcomes that stand up to rigorous scrutiny. The Washed Arabica category, widely recognised as Kenya’s most competitive, demands precision. Tatu Coffee, a Rendeavour-owned estate that won first and third place in this category, demonstrates sustained investment in systems that deliver top-quality coffee.
Notably, the winning coffees came from regular production rather than experimental lots, reinforcing the importance of consistency at scale. The international jury praised the coffees for their complex notes of orange blossom, red berries, marmalade, and jam with juicy, well-balanced, bright acidity, and sweetness that increased with extraction time. The multi-layered clarity was a highlight.
Covoya, a leading specialty coffee buyer, recently ranked EAAGADS coffee (an estate within Tatu Coffee Estates), Lot No. 37, as No. 3 among nearly 1,000 lots they cupped and traded over the past year, specifically for the period between the 2025 and 2026 AFCA cycles. First place was awarded to a 14 kg lot of coffee from Saudi Arabia, while second place went to coffee from Uganda. These validations across different segments of the industry are a testament to the quality of what we are producing, and they provide strong encouragement that we are on the right path.
Collaboration with larger, established estates also offers smallholders the opportunity to learn and adopt proven systems. The same applies in reverse, as estates can also learn from smallholder resilience and innovation. An industry that has a 360-degree learning culture continues to grow. This calls for a unified approach that encourages estates to open their doors, allowing smallholders to understand the processes that maintain quality and, where possible, benefit from access to the machinery and infrastructure held by their larger counterparts.
Positively, the demand for Kenyan coffee is growing both domestically and internationally, with quality as the foundation. Producers who commit to verified quality and reliability will be best positioned to capture value. Those who treat quality as a marketing buzzword rather than an operational reality will find themselves competing at lower tiers of the industry.
Kenya’s coffee future will depend on maintaining market-visible volumes and how many producers choose to make quality and reliability their defining characteristics. In addition, producers and other industry players need to constantly recognise the contribution of the industry to Kenya’s rural economy. Coffee estates and cooperatives provide thousands of permanent and seasonal jobs, generating significant employment and income in coffee-growing communities. This investment supports livelihoods, contributing to the resilience of Kenya’s coffee sector at a time when national coffee production has faced long-term decline.
There is also a growing need for operators to adhere to environmental, social, and agricultural standards. Sustainability must be embedded across coffee production and operations, including water management, reforestation, ecosystem conservation, and responsible waste handling. The industry must also prioritise worker welfare through fair wages and safe working conditions.
The path forward requires acknowledging that good prices are fundamental to farm sustainability. Excellence demands investment in people, infrastructure, training, commitment, and rigorous process discipline. These do not come for free. Producers are capable of implementing all of this when prices are remunerative. The transition from a hardworking farmer to a commercially informed producer begins with a clear understanding of product quality and market positioning.
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The writer is the CEO of Tatu Coffee Estates Limited