Africa’s Trade Momentum Builds as Infrastructure Improves and Firms Grow More Optimistic

A new trade barometer covering ten African economies indicates that businesses are increasingly optimistic about cross-border trade prospects as governments invest in logistics systems, modernise customs processes and strengthen trade facilitation mechanisms. The surveyed markets — Angola, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Namibia, Nigeria, South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia — collectively account for about 68 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa’s GDP, offering a broad view of the continent’s evolving trade landscape.

One of the most striking findings is the simultaneous improvement across all major trade-enabling infrastructure indicators. Businesses reported better performance in power supply, telecommunications, road and rail networks, port capacity and digital border systems. The coordinated progress signals growing investment in logistics corridors and digital trade platforms designed to move goods faster and more predictably.

The improving infrastructure environment is being matched by rising economic confidence among businesses operating in these markets. The survey shows that the business confidence index has climbed to 65, with most firms expecting stronger turnover and more stable trading conditions in the coming years.

Economic growth across the surveyed markets is projected to trend toward 4.3 percent in 2026. Moderating inflation across several economies and improved external debt positions are helping stabilise the macroeconomic environment. At the same time, strong global demand for commodities such as gold, platinum and copper is supporting export earnings and strengthening foreign exchange inflows for resource-rich economies.

Regional integration is also gaining momentum, with increasing awareness of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). About half of the firms surveyed say they are now familiar with the agreement and believe it could unlock wider market access, easier movement of goods and new industrial opportunities across the continent. Early shipments facilitated under the framework are already demonstrating practical progress in reducing trade barriers.

East Africa stands out as the strongest-performing sub-region in the survey, recording a 10-percentage-point increase in export activity. The growth reflects stronger policy coordination and ongoing trade facilitation reforms across the region.

Kenya has emerged as a central player in this shift, acting as a regional integration anchor. A recent trade reclassification between Kenya and Uganda now treats goods originating in Kenya as intra-regional transfers rather than imports, significantly reducing administrative friction within the East African Community. At the same time, renewed commitments by Kenya and Tanzania to eliminate non-tariff barriers are helping improve trade coordination that previously slowed cross-border flows.

These policy changes, combined with infrastructure upgrades along the Northern and Central transport corridors, are reducing border delays and improving supply-chain reliability. For businesses operating across East Africa, the result is lower transaction costs and greater confidence to expand regional operations.

Digital systems are also transforming how trade is conducted. Digital payments now facilitate nearly four out of five cross-border transactions, driven by the expansion of banking payment rails, mobile money integration and the growing adoption of the Pan-African Payment and Settlement System. The shift is reducing reliance on hard currency and enabling faster settlement in local currencies.

Despite the positive momentum, businesses still face a number of headwinds. Climate-related pressures remain a significant concern, with many firms reporting demand fluctuations linked to climate impacts as well as productivity losses caused by extreme weather patterns. These challenges highlight the need for more resilient infrastructure and production systems across the continent.

Global trade dynamics are also shifting. Some firms report declining engagement with the United States following recent tariff changes affecting access to the American market. Meanwhile, sourcing from Asian markets is increasing, particularly from China, as businesses seek competitive pricing, broader product availability and more reliable supply chains.

Even with these uncertainties, the broader outlook for African trade remains positive. As countries continue harmonising customs systems, strengthening logistics networks and deepening regional trade frameworks, businesses are increasingly confident that Africa’s ability to scale industrial production and regional value chains will accelerate in the coming years.

For many companies across the continent, the message is becoming clearer: Africa’s trade story is no longer defined solely by potential. It is increasingly being shaped by tangible progress on the ground — from highways and digital borders to new trade corridors connecting businesses across the continent.