The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a warning that El Niño conditions are developing across the tropical Pacific Ocean, raising concerns over rising global temperatures and increasingly disruptive weather patterns in the months ahead.
According to the latest WMO weather and climate update released on June 2, there is an estimated 80 per cent probability that El Niño will develop between June and August 2026.
The global weather agency noted that changing ocean and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific are increasingly favouring the onset of the climate phenomenon, which is known to influence weather systems across large parts of the world.
“A new WMO El Niño/La Niña Update indicates an 80 per cent likelihood of an El Niño event during June-August 2026,” the organization stated.
Forecast models further suggest that the phenomenon is likely to persist beyond the initial development stage. According to the WMO, there is more than a 90 per cent probability that El Niño conditions will continue through November 2026, with the possibility of strengthening to moderate or even strong intensity.
Climate experts warn that a stronger El Niño could have far-reaching consequences for global weather patterns, including increased temperatures, prolonged heatwaves, altered rainfall distribution, and a greater likelihood of extreme weather events.
The WMO’s seasonal outlook indicates that above-average temperatures are expected across nearly all land areas between June and August. This widespread warming is expected to heighten the risk of heat stress, particularly in regions already vulnerable to extreme heat conditions.
Scientists attribute the developing El Niño to unusually warm ocean waters beneath the surface of the Pacific Ocean. The affected area stretches across parts of Southeast Asia and the western Pacific, including waters near Indonesia, the Philippines and Papua New Guinea.
These subsurface temperatures are significantly above normal and are gradually warming the ocean surface, creating conditions conducive to the formation of El Niño.
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. Although it originates in the Pacific, its effects are felt globally, influencing rainfall patterns, storm activity, drought conditions and temperature extremes across multiple continents.
For Africa, the WMO projects that the emerging El Niño will significantly influence rainfall patterns, particularly across eastern and southern regions of the continent. Climate outlook maps released by the organization show an increased likelihood of above-normal rainfall across the Horn of Africa during the coming months.
The region includes Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Eritrea, Djibouti and South Sudan, where wetter-than-normal conditions are expected to dominate seasonal weather patterns.
While increased rainfall may help replenish water resources in some areas, experts caution that excessive precipitation could trigger devastating impacts. Flooding, landslides, river overflows and damage to critical infrastructure are among the key risks highlighted by the WMO.
Agricultural production could also be affected, with crops vulnerable to waterlogging, soil erosion and disease outbreaks associated with prolonged wet conditions.
The organization warned that vulnerable communities could face heightened risks of displacement, loss of livelihoods and food insecurity if extreme rainfall events materialize.
“Rainfall probabilities are typical of El Niño patterns and this is likely to contribute to a greater probability of extremes, including increased rainfall and flooding, as well as drier conditions and droughts in some regions,” the WMO stated.
The agency noted that while some areas are expected to receive excessive rainfall, others may experience below-average precipitation, illustrating the complex and often contrasting impacts associated with El Niño events worldwide.
For Kenya, the warning carries particular significance given the country’s history with destructive El Niño episodes. The East African nation has repeatedly experienced severe flooding linked to the phenomenon, resulting in widespread humanitarian and economic losses.
One of the most devastating El Niño events occurred between 1997 and 1998, when exceptionally heavy rains battered the country for several months.
The floods destroyed roads, bridges, and public infrastructure, triggered deadly landslides in highland regions and disrupted transport networks across the country. Thousands of families were displaced, while outbreaks of waterborne diseases further compounded the crisis.
More recently, Kenya endured another period of extreme weather during the 2023–2024 El Niño season. The event coincided with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a climate pattern that enhances rainfall over East Africa. The combination of the two phenomena resulted in catastrophic flooding across many parts of the country.
The floods claimed lives, displaced hundreds of thousands of residents and caused extensive destruction to homes, roads, schools and farmlands. Economic activities were disrupted in several counties as communities struggled to recover from the impacts of the prolonged rains.
With another El Niño potentially on the horizon, meteorologists and disaster management agencies are urging governments, humanitarian organizations, and local communities to strengthen preparedness measures.
Early warning systems, flood mitigation plans, infrastructure protection, and community awareness campaigns are expected to play a crucial role in reducing the impacts of extreme weather events.
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