Kenya Met Cautions Public Over Expected El Niño Conditions

The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (Kenya Met) has issued an early warning over the anticipated development of El Niño conditions, cautioning that Kenya could experience a dramatic shift in weather patterns later this year.

Kenya Met says the country may transition from relatively dry conditions during the middle months of the year to significantly wetter weather, with the possibility of heavy rainfall, flooding, and related disruptions towards the end of 2026.

In a statement released on June 9, Kenya Met noted that global climate models are increasingly pointing to the emergence of El Niño during the June to August period.

According to the latest forecasts, there is an estimated 80 to 82 per cent probability that the climate phenomenon will develop during the season, with the likelihood rising to between 90 and 96 per cent that it will persist through the remainder of the year.

Meteorologists further indicated that the expected El Niño event is likely to reach at least moderate intensity and could potentially strengthen into a significant weather event capable of influencing rainfall and temperature patterns across Kenya and the wider East African region.

“The Kenya Meteorological Department is closely monitoring global forecasts indicating the anticipated development of El Niño conditions in 2026, which could significantly influence weather patterns across the country.

Most models suggest the event will be at least moderate, and possibly strong,” Kenya Met said in its statement.

The authority emphasized that although climate forecasts continue to evolve as new data becomes available, current projections consistently point towards a high probability of El Niño developing and remaining active through the final months of the year.

“While forecasts remain subject to change as new climate data becomes available, there is an 80–82 per cent likelihood of El Niño during June–August 2026, with probabilities near or above 90–96 per cent for it to continue through the end of 2026. This phenomenon usually has varied impacts across Kenya and the East Africa region at large,” the agency added.

According to Kenya Met, Kenya is likely to experience a split climate pattern throughout the year, with weather conditions differing significantly between seasons and regions.

The outlook suggests that while some parts of the country may remain relatively dry in the coming months, the situation could change considerably later in the year when El Niño’s effects become more pronounced.

For the June–July–August season, large sections of Kenya are expected to receive near-average to below-average rainfall. Areas likely to experience these conditions include the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley region, and parts of Northwestern Kenya.

These regions may see reduced rainfall amounts compared to what is typically recorded during the season.

Meanwhile, much of Southeastern and Northeastern Kenya is projected to remain generally sunny and dry, accompanied by warmer-than-normal temperatures.

The prevailing weather conditions are expected to increase evaporation rates and could place additional pressure on water resources and agricultural activities, particularly in regions that are already vulnerable to drought conditions.

The Coastal region presents a different outlook. Meteorologists project that coastal counties are likely to receive near-average to slightly above-average rainfall during the same period. Nairobi and its surrounding highland areas may experience occasional cool and cloudy conditions, accompanied by intermittent light rainfall and periods of misty weather.

However, it is the latter part of the year that has attracted the greatest attention from weather experts. Kenya Met warned that weather conditions could undergo a significant transformation during the October–November–December rainy season, a period when El Niño is historically associated with enhanced rainfall across Kenya.

Should the event strengthen as currently projected, several parts of the country could experience above-normal rainfall, increasing the risk of flash floods, river overflows, landslides in vulnerable areas, and damage to infrastructure.

Urban centres with poor drainage systems could also face heightened flood risks during periods of intense rainfall. The authority further explained that El Niño’s influence on Kenya’s climate may be amplified by developments in the Indian Ocean.

“It is important to note that the influence of El Niño does not occur in isolation. KMD is also closely monitoring the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) signal, which modulates the effect of El Niño in Kenya,” the statement noted.

Read Also: WMO Warns Of Emerging El Niño As Global Temperatures And Extreme Weather Risks Rise