Kenya Met Issues Rainfall Alert As Intensifying El Niño Looms

Kenyans should start getting ready for a wet end to the year. The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (Kenya Met) says the 2026 El Niño is picking up strength, and the country should expect above-average rainfall from the last week of September right through to December.

The forecast, part of the October-December outlook released on Wednesday, August 26, doesn’t mince words: the rains could be heavy enough to trigger flooding in several areas, with landslides a real risk in hillier regions.

All 47 counties are expected to see more rain than usual this season, according to the department, though it won’t fall evenly.

Central Kenya, the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria basin and Western Kenya are singled out as areas where the rainfall intensity will build up gradually as the season progresses.

Timing will also vary quite a bit from one region to the next. Some parts of the country could see rain as early as September, while others won’t feel it until the second week of October or later.

“According to the most recent update, the 2026 El Niño event continues to intensify across the central-eastern equatorial Pacific,” KEMSA said in its statement.

A large cluster of counties falls into this early group: Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia and Uasin Gishu are all expected to see the season’s rains begin in September.

The same applies to Elgeyo-Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori and Narok.

Further south and east, the timeline shifts. Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka-Nithi and Nairobi are expected to start receiving rain in the second and third weeks of October.

Coastal and northern counties follow a similar schedule: Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu, Kilifi, the Tana Delta, along with Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, are all pegged for that same mid-to-late October window.

Machakos, Kitui, Makueni, Kajiado, Taita-Taveta and the inland stretches of Tana River County come in slightly later still, with moderate to heavy rain expected from the third and fourth weeks of October.

Kenya Met is forecasting warmer-than-average temperatures through the October-December period, with the coast and northern Kenya bearing the brunt of the heat.

The department links this to the seasonal southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), which tends to drag warm, humid air along with it.

Read Also: Kenya Met List Regions Set For Heavy Rainfall And Cool Conditions For The Next Seven Days