New Poll Says Kenya’s Flavour Ban Could Send Ex-Smokers Back to Cigarettes

Kenya’s Parliament is currently weighing the Tobacco Control (Amendment) Bill, a piece of legislation that would tighten the rules around vapes and nicotine pouches, including, controversially, a ban on most flavours beyond plain tobacco. On paper, the goal is straightforward public health: make smokeless nicotine products less appealing, especially to young people. But a new member poll from the Campaign for Safer Alternatives (CASA), a Pan-African tobacco harm reduction advocacy group, suggests the policy could backfire by pushing people who already quit smoking back toward cigarettes.

The headline numbers

CASA surveyed 147 of its members online between June 29 and July 6, 2026, deliberately sampling current users of vapes and nicotine pouches, plus smokers considering the switch. When asked what they would do if flavoured products were banned:

• 32% said they would go back to smoking cigarettes
• 18% said they would smoke more than they currently do
• 33% said they’d simply source flavoured products through unofficial or alternative channels
• Only 5% said they’d quit vaping entirely, and 12% said they’d switch to tobacco-flavoured products

Put differently, roughly half the sample said a flavour ban would either send them back to cigarettes or increase their cigarette use — the opposite of what the legislation is presumably trying to achieve.

Why flavours matter to quitters

The poll also probed why people use these products in the first place. Half said they use vapes or pouches to help them quit smoking altogether, and 47% said they see them as a less harmful alternative to cigarettes. Flavour, specifically, came up as a major factor in staying smoke-free: 53% said flavours help them stay off cigarettes entirely, and 43% said flavours help them cut down. Tellingly, only 14% actually prefer tobacco flavour — most gravitate toward menthol, fruit, or other non-tobacco options.

CASA points to international data to back up the theory that flavour is functionally important, not just a marketing gimmick. It cites a multi-year U.S. study of over 17,000 adults, whose authors — researchers at Yale — found that adults who used flavoured vaping products were more than twice as likely to quit cigarettes altogether compared to those using tobacco-flavoured products, and argued that this evidence should be weighed before flavour restrictions are imposed.

The report also points to Denmark as a cautionary tale: after the country banned most vape flavours in 2022, youth vaping reportedly rose while adults began sourcing banned flavours through informal markets — arguably the worst of both worlds.

A government that isn’t listening?

Beyond the flavour question, the survey paints a picture of a user base that feels shut out of the policymaking process. A striking 88% said the government should hold public consultations on the bill before it’s finalized, and a similar share (89%) said officials should prioritize helping smokers quit over banning flavoured alternatives. 88% also said they believe the government is currently ignoring the concerns of smokers and nicotine product users.

Worth reading with a critical eye

It’s worth noting what this poll is and isn’t. It’s a self-selected sample of 147 people, drawn specifically from CASA’s own membership — current and prospective users of vapes and pouches — rather than a random cross-section of the Kenyan public. CASA is also an advocacy organization with a clear stance on tobacco harm reduction policy, not a neutral research body. That doesn’t make the findings meaningless, but it does mean the numbers reflect the views of people already invested in these products, and should be read as one input into the debate rather than a definitive verdict on what the general population — or even all smokers — would do.

The bigger question for lawmakers

Still, the tension the report highlights is a real one that shows up in harm-reduction debates worldwide: restrictions designed to make nicotine products less attractive to non-users and young people can also make them less effective as an off-ramp from cigarettes for people who already smoke. With Kenya’s Tobacco Control (Amendment) Bill still under consideration, the question facing lawmakers isn’t just whether to regulate flavours, but how to do it without undermining the very smokers the policy is meant to help.

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