The World Meteorological Organization, WMO, has sharply revised its confidence in El Niño’s staying power, now putting the odds at nearly 100 percent, a jump from the 80 percent it had cited just weeks earlier.
The updated outlook, released on September 3, draws on data from WMO’s network of Global Producing Centres, which now point to an “exceptionally high likelihood” that the climate pattern will hold on all the way through February 2027.
That’s a notable escalation from WMO’s earlier assessment, which had pegged the odds of El Niño emerging at around 80 percent for the closing months of the year, climbing to somewhere near or above 90 percent by September and November.
Behind the shift is a familiar culprit: unusually warm waters spreading across the tropical Pacific, a trend scientists say they’ve been watching build for months. Forecasters expect the pattern to keep intensifying in the weeks ahead, potentially reaching “very strong” status before it peaks late this year.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres didn’t mince words in reacting to the news, calling the current El Niño unlike anything seen before and cautioning that the planet’s warming trajectory should alarm everyone.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes,” Guterres said. “The science leaves no room for doubt: the planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up. Sea surface temperatures are rising, and the world is in the danger zone for extreme weather. The race now is between rising risks and our commitment to take climate action and protect people. We must win that race.”
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo struck a similar tone, warning that as El Niño gathers strength, it’s the world’s most vulnerable communities and economies that stand to be hit hardest.
For Kenya, the forecast carries particular weight. WMO has flagged mounting El Niño risk across the Greater Horn of Africa, a region that includes Somalia, Kenya, Mozambique, and Eritrea, where the pattern is expected to bring heavy rains and significant disruption.
Adding to the concern, a new report from the Danish Refugee Council estimates that as many as 1.03 million people across the region could be displaced by the coming rains. Officials are urging Kenyans to prepare for what could be substantial population movements in the months ahead.
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