Opinion

Kenya Met Issues Flash Flood Alert for Several Parts Of Kenya As Rains Begin

BY Getrude Mathayo · October 6, 2026 12:10 pm

The October-December short rains have started, and the Kenya Met says most of the country will see rain this week, though not all at once. Kenya Met expects light to moderate showers in 45 counties.

They include Nairobi, Kiambu, Nakuru, Kisumu, Mombasa, Kilifi, Garissa, Turkana and Meru. The more worrying forecast is for the north and coast. Isolated storms are likely in Mandera, Wajir, Marsabit, Tana River and Kilifi, and the department says they could trigger flash floods.

Acting Kenya Met head Edward Muriuki said the onset is staggered. Rain has already fallen in 24 counties, mostly in the west, Rift Valley and parts of the coast: Nandi, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Siaya, Busia, Baringo, Nakuru, Trans Nzoia, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisii, Nyamira, Kericho, Bomet, Narok, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Mombasa, Kwale, Lamu and Kilifi.

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Marsabit, Mandera, Wajir, Garissa and Isiolo, first or second week of October. Central Kenya and Ukambani, second or third week. Turkana and Samburu: among the last to get rain

The coast and northeast, covering Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Lamu and Mandera, are expected to get some of the heaviest downpours. Parts of central and southeastern Kenya, including Nairobi, Kiambu, Machakos, Makueni, Meru, Embu and Nyeri, are forecast to get above-average rainfall.

The department says the rains should recharge water sources, bring back pasture and help farmers prepare land and plant. But too much rain could waterlog fields, spread crop diseases, cause flooding and make it hard to get produce to market.

Muriuki cautioned against crediting the season’s rain to El Niño alone, noting that other systems, including the Indian Ocean Dipole, also play a part.

The World Meteorological Organization expects a positive Indian Ocean Dipole to develop between September and November as El Niño strengthens. Temperatures are expected to stay above average in most parts of Kenya this season.

For the coast, the department has issued a seven-day outlook for Kenyan waters and the wider Western Indian Ocean. Winds will blow at 2 to 18 knots over Somali, Kenyan and Tanzanian waters, with waves of 0.2 to 1.6 metres (about 0.6 to 4.8 feet). Conditions should range from slight to moderate.