By Rosalyn Mugoh
There is a question many Kenyans seem to be asking as we approach another uncertain rainy season: Is El Niño here?
Farmers are watching the skies, businesses are assessing the risks ahead, and families are recalling previous seasons of heavy rainfall and flooding. But beyond the question of when the rains will come, there is a more important one: Are we prepared for what they might bring?
For a long time, Kenya’s weather patterns offered a degree of predictability. Farmers planned around the long and short rains, businesses anticipated seasonal changes, and households made decisions with some confidence about the months ahead.
Increasingly, that certainty is becoming difficult to rely on.
Roads that have served communities for decades become impassable after hours of heavy rain. Businesses find their premises flooded, sometimes in areas where flooding was previously uncommon. Farmers contend with rainfall that arrives late, falls too heavily or ends before their crops have matured.
These experiences remind us that the weather we prepare for is not always the weather we get.
El Niño has brought this uncertainty into sharper focus. However, its effects are not uniform, and forecasts do not guarantee the same conditions across every part of Kenya. What matters is that we take credible climate advisories seriously and prepare for the risks relevant to our communities.
Climate-related risks are not experienced simply as statistics. They are felt by a family whose home is flooded, a business owner whose stock is damaged, a motorist caught in rising water or a farmer who loses a season’s investment.
For those affected, the question is not merely how much rain fell. It is how quickly they can recover and rebuild their lives and livelihoods.
Our approach to preparedness must therefore change.
Too often, we assess risk through the lens of past experience. If a property has never flooded, we assume it is safe. If a road has remained passable for years, we expect it to remain so. If a business has survived previous rainy seasons without disruption, we assume the next will be no different.
Past experience is valuable, but it is not a guarantee of future safety.
Responding to this uncertainty does not mean living in fear. It means developing a stronger culture of preparedness, one that anticipates risks rather than simply reacting when disaster strikes.
For households, this includes following weather advisories, understanding local vulnerabilities and maintaining drainage around their properties. For businesses, it means assessing risks to buildings, stock, equipment and supply chains, as well as planning for interruptions to normal operations. Motorists must take flood warnings seriously, avoid flooded roads and understand the terms of their insurance policies before an emergency occurs.
Insurance should also be part of this conversation, not as a substitute for prevention, but as a vital component of financial resilience.
A major weather-related loss can place enormous pressure on household finances and business resources. Repairing a building, replacing damaged possessions or restoring stock and equipment can consume savings accumulated over many years.
Appropriate insurance can help cushion these losses and support recovery. However, having a policy does not automatically mean every weather-related loss is covered. Policyholders need to understand their cover, exclusions and conditions, including whether flooding or storm damage is insured. Businesses should also consider whether business interruption cover is appropriate for their operations.
Insurance cannot stop the rain or prevent rivers from bursting their banks. What it can do, when the right cover is in place, is provide financial support that helps individuals and businesses recover without bearing the entire cost of a loss themselves.
The insurance industry has a responsibility to support this shift. As risks evolve, we must help customers understand their exposure, communicate policy terms more clearly and ensure they can make informed decisions about their protection. Our role extends beyond selling policies to helping people appreciate the value of risk prevention and financial preparedness.
Ultimately, resilience requires a shared effort. Government agencies, county administrations, businesses, communities, households and insurers all have a part to play. Better drainage, reliable early warnings, responsible development, safer travel decisions and appropriate financial protection must work together.
We will continue to ask whether the rains are coming, when they will arrive and how heavy they might be. These are important questions.
But there is another question we must confront: If tomorrow’s weather no longer resembles yesterday’s, are we still protecting ourselves as though it does?
We cannot control the weather. We can, however, make better decisions before it changes, reduce the risks we can prevent and put measures in place to recover when the unexpected happens.
Preparedness is not about predicting every storm. It is about ensuring that when one comes, it does not leave us without a way forward.
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Rosalyn is the Managing Director of Liberty & Heritage Insurance Kenya