Why Nairobi And Other Parts Of Kenya Are Experiencing Hot Weather During The Short Rains

The short rains are here, yet Nairobi feels more like the dry season. Across the city and in many other parts of Kenya, residents are complaining of scorching afternoons and clear skies, and plenty of people are asking the same thing: where is the El Niño rain we were promised?

Experts say the answer is that more rain over a whole season does not mean rain every day, and it does not mean cooler weather.

According to weather expert Maithya wa Vilivū, seasonal models point to a warmer-than-normal Nairobi for the rest of 2026 and into early 2027. Temperatures are projected to run 0.5°C to 1.5°C above normal, with a median rise of about 1.1°C.

His seven-day outlook puts daytime highs at 28°C to 30°C, and some parts of the city could go past 30°C.

Maithya says the rainfall forecast is hard to pin down because El Niño does not act alone. It interacts with other climate systems, including the Indian Ocean Dipole, the Madden-Julian Oscillation, Kelvin waves, and tropical storms in the Indian Ocean. Together, they shape how moisture moves and where rain ends up falling.

So while El Niño is linked to wetter conditions in East Africa, these other systems help decide when and where the rain arrives. That is why Nairobi can still get hot, sunny days in the middle of the rainy season.

The IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre expects enhanced rainfall across much of the Greater Horn of Africa between October and December. It adds that timing and distribution will differ from place to place.

Experts at the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) say a late start to the rains in some areas does not mean the seasonal forecast has changed. They also note that the strength of El Niño alone cannot tell you how much rain a given location will get.

Kenya’s hot spell comes against a worrying global backdrop. Reuters Climate Monitor’s Heat Storm Tracker forecasts that a heat storm would cover 32.1 per cent of the planet, potentially affecting 1.7 billion people, or 21 per cent of the world’s population.

The tracker also found that heat storms and heat waves have covered an average of 18.1 per cent of Earth’s surface each day over the past five years. Between 1961 and 1990, the figure was just 2.1 per cent.

Closer to home, the Kenya Meteorological Department expects maximum daytime temperatures above 35°C in parts of Garissa, Wajir, Tana River, Isiolo, Kilifi, Marsabit, Samburu and Turkana counties between October 20 and 26.

For the same week, Nairobi, high of 29°C, low of 12°C, Lodwar: 38°C, Mandera: 37°C, Wajir: 36°C and Garissa: 35°C

KMSA’s October-December outlook calls for above-average rainfall across much of Kenya, but also warmer-than-average temperatures. In other words, the rains are coming, but hot days will not disappear, especially where rainfall is delayed or patchy.

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