The Treasury Missed Its Own Target. The Public Deserves More Than an Excuse
KEY POINTS
A widening deficit is a credibility problem when budgets keep promising savings that never materialise.
When a household promises to spend Sh50,000 and ends up spending Sh70,000, the family must confront the gap. The government should be held to an even higher standard because its mistakes can be financed with borrowing passed to people who never approved the purchases. The World Bank’s November 2026 economic update reports a fiscal deficit of about 6.8 per cent of GDP in FY2025/26 against an initial target of 4.7 per cent.
A deficit is not always proof of mismanagement. Economic shocks, emergency expenditure and weaker revenues can justify adjustment. But a gap of that size demands a public reconciliation: which assumptions failed, what spending increased, which projects were delayed and who authorised departures from plan? Vague reassurances about fiscal discipline are not a substitute for a line-by-line account.
Budget overruns affect ordinary people even when the effects are indirect. More financing can mean higher future taxes, slower service delivery, greater competition for local savings or less room for emergencies. Businesses that supply the state can also be trapped by unpredictable disbursements. When Treasury’s forecast is unreliable, everyone else’s cash-flow planning becomes harder.
Kenya needs more conservative revenue assumptions, publication of quarterly commitment and cash-payment data, and stricter controls on supplementary budgets. Parliament should publish easy-to-understand explanations of major deviations and review the outcomes of projects that consumed additional funds. Independent fiscal scrutiny must be resourced and heard before, not after, costly decisions.
Credible budgeting is not about pretending the future is perfectly predictable. It is about telling the public the truth when the plan changes and proving that corrections were made. A government that asks citizens to tighten their belts should first demonstrate that its own belt has working holes.
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About Steve Biko Wafula
Steve Biko is the CEO OF Soko Directory and the founder of Hidalgo Group of Companies. Steve is currently developing his career in law, finance, entrepreneurship and digital consultancy; and has been implementing consultancy assignments for client organizations comprising of trainings besides capacity building in entrepreneurial matters.He can be reached on: +254 20 510 1124 or Email: info@sokodirectory.com
