Heavy Rains, Strong Winds Forecast Across Kenya as El Niño Intensifies

Kenyans in several parts of the country should brace for a wet, windy week ahead, according to the latest forecast from the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA).

In its bulletin issued September 21, 2026, the weather agency said western Kenya would see heightened rainfall between September 22 and 28, with wet conditions also expected to spread across a wide swath of the country.

Counties likely to receive rain include Kericho, Nandi, Kisumu, Baringo, Bomet, Homa Bay, Nakuru, Busia, Siaya, Migori, Nyamira, Uasin Gishu and Trans Nzoia. The forecast also covers Nyandarua, Wajir, Mandera, Tana River, Taita Taveta, Murang’a, Kirinyaga, Kiambu, Nairobi, Embu, Meru and Nyeri.

Away from the rain, KMSA is warning of powerful southerly to southeasterly winds, gusting past 25 knots, or roughly 12.5 metres per second, across a stretch of northern and coastal counties.

Turkana, Marsabit, Isiolo, Garissa, Mandera and Wajir are among the areas expected to feel the strongest gusts, alongside Tana River, Taita Taveta, Kwale, Kilifi, Lamu and Kitui.

Temperatures will also swing sharply depending on where you are. Daytime highs could climb past 30°C in Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, Garissa, Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit and Turkana, while nights in parts of Meru, Tharaka Nithi, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Nyeri, Nakuru, Narok, Taita Taveta and Kajiado could dip below 10°C.

Behind this shifting weather pattern lies a rapidly intensifying El Niño. Data released by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) on September 14 showed the phenomenon had pushed past the 2°C warming mark in the central-eastern Pacific, a threshold that qualifies it as “very strong.”

The World Meteorological Organization now believes there’s almost no chance El Niño fades before February 2027, with most climate models pointing to a peak sometime around November or December this year.

NOAA, meanwhile, puts the odds of a very strong El Niño persisting through the Northern Hemisphere’s fall and winter at above 90 percent, and estimates roughly a 75 percent chance this could rank among the strongest El Niño events recorded since 1950.

With the October–November–December rainy season approaching, Kenyan authorities began ramping up preparations on September 17, flagging the risk of flooding, landslides and damage to infrastructure.

A day later, Public Service Cabinet Secretary Geoffrey Ruku confirmed that emergency resources had already been pre-positioned in counties considered most vulnerable, among them Mandera, Wajir, Tana River and Marsabit, as well as parts of the coast and Rift Valley.

So far, 18 counties have been placed on high alert. Contingency plans reportedly include mapping out evacuation routes, setting up temporary shelters, and stockpiling food, clean water, and medical supplies, alongside efforts to clear drainage systems and river channels before the rains intensify.

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