Kenya Met Forecasts Below-Average September Rains In The Following Regions

Farmers in several of Kenya’s most productive agricultural counties have been put on alert after the Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (Kenya Met) forecast below-average rainfall for September, a development that could deepen an already difficult season for the country’s breadbasket regions.

According to Kenya Met’s latest monthly outlook, the counties expected to receive reduced rainfall this month include Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Siaya, Vihiga, Nandi and Uasin Gishu, all core maize-growing areas. The watch list also extends to Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisumu, Kericho, Nyamira, Kisii, Bomet, Migori and Homa Bay, along with parts of Narok, Nakuru and Baringo.

Kenya Met says the drier conditions could actually help farmers still working through their harvest, but warned the relief may be short-lived. Officials cautioned that shortages of food, water and pasture are likely to follow, particularly given the crop losses many of these counties already suffered in recent months.

“The below-average rainfall expected over Trans Nzoia, Bungoma, Busia, Kakamega, Siaya, Vihiga, Nandi, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, West Pokot, Kisumu, Kericho, Nyamira, Kisii, Bomet, Migori, Homa Bay and parts of Narok, Nakuru and Baringo counties may be conducive for harvesting,” the agency said in its bulletin.

Meanwhile, arid and semi-arid counties, Laikipia, Makueni, Kitui, Machakos, Marsabit, Wajir, Mandera, Garissa, Isiolo, Taita Taveta and Kajiado are set for largely sunny, dry weather through the month.

The forecast’s implications go well beyond the farm. Kenya Met flagged serious concerns for water resources and electricity generation, warning that the Mt. Kenya catchment area is expected to stay largely dry this month, a trend that could push down water levels at hydroelectric facilities such as Masinga Dam and put additional strain on areas that rely heavily on irrigation.

“The water catchment areas in Mt Elgon and the Mau Escarpment are expected to receive below-average rainfall, while those over Mt Kenya are expected to experience mainly dry weather conditions. This may adversely affect water levels in hydroelectric dams,” the authority noted.

Water access in the north and northeast is also expected to tighten. KMSA said supplies in Mandera, Wajir, Isiolo, Marsabit, Garissa, Turkana and Samburu are likely to drop as dry conditions persist through September.

Compounding the problem, the Mt Elgon and Mau Escarpment catchments, which feed many of Kenya’s major rivers, are also projected to receive below-average rainfall, a trend forecasters say will ripple further into the country’s key farming zones.

The warning comes as Kenya grapples with a shortage of staple foods, maize chief among them. The squeeze recently pushed the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock to authorise the importation of 25 million bags of maize to shore up supply.

Milk is also in short supply. The Kenya Dairy Board (KDB) reported that formal deliveries to processors slipped 3.7 per cent between June and July 2026, falling from 84.4 million litres to 81.3 million litres, as cold, dry weather cut into pasture and fodder available to dairy herds.

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