How Healthy Will The People Of East Africa Be By 2040?

A new scientific study of forecasts released by the international medical journal The Lancet shows that non-communicable diseases will be the major cause of death for the East African people by 2040.

The Lancet study revealed that diabetes, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), chronic kidney disease, and lung cancer as the key diseases that as well as obesity.

Speaking in Seattle, Washington while releasing the Study, Dr. Kyle Foreman, Director of Data Science at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) said that “The future of the world’s health is not pre-ordained, and there is a wide range of plausible trajectories.”

Dr. Foreman added that “But whether we see significant progress or stagnation depends on how well or poorly health systems address key health drivers.”

The study further argues that the threats by these diseases will lower life expectancies for the East African people by 20140.

The rankings of nations’ life expectancies offer new insights into their health status. For example, Kenya, with an average life expectancy of 66.9 years in 2016, ranked 146th among 195 nations. However, if recent health trends continue it could rise to a rank of 134th in 2040 with an average life expectancy of 73.9 years, an increase of 7.0 years. Kenya’s life expectancy could increase by as much as 11.1 years in a better health scenario or decrease by 0.7 years in a worse health scenario.

Uganda, with an average life expectancy of 62.2 years in 2016, ranked 172nd among 195 nations. However, if recent health trends continue, it could fall to a rank of 168th in 2040 with an average life expectancy of 69.5 years, an increase of 7.3 years. Uganda’s life expectancy could increase by as much as 10.6 years in a better health scenario or decrease by as much as 0.1 years in a worse health scenario.

Tanzania, with an average life expectancy of 64.3 years in 2016, ranked 163rd among 195 nations. However, if recent health trends continue, it could rise to a rank of 151st in 2040 with an average life expectancy of 72.3 years, an increase of 8.0 years. Tanzania’s life expectancy could increase by as much as 11.6 years in a better health scenario or as little as 2.5 years in a worse health scenario.

Rwanda, with an average life expectancy of 67.8 years in 2016, ranked 139th among 195 nations. However, if recent health trends continue it could rise to a rank of 124th in 2040 with an average life expectancy of 74.8 years, an increase of 7.0 years. Rwanda’s life expectancy could increase by as much as 9.8 years in a better health scenario or as little as 2.4 years in a worse health scenario.

In contrast, the United States in 2016 ranked 43rd with an average lifespan of 78.7 years. In 2040, life expectancy is forecast to increase only 1.1 years to 79.8, but dropping in rank to 64th. China, on the other hand, had a lifespan of 76.3 years in 2016 and is expected to increase to 81.9, raising its rank from 68th to 39th in 2040.

The top five health drivers that explain most of the future trajectory for premature mortality are high blood pressure, high body mass index, high blood sugar, tobacco use, and alcohol use, Foreman said. Air pollution ranked sixth.

The study is unprecedented in scope, Foreman said and provides more robust statistical modeling and more comprehensive and detailed estimates of risk factors and diseases than previous forecasts from the United Nations and other population studies institutes.

IHME researchers leveraged data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study to produce forecasts and alternative “better” and “worse” scenarios for life expectancy and mortality due to 250 causes of death for 195 countries and territories.

Researchers produced forecasts of independent drivers of health, including sociodemographic measurements of fertility, per capita income, and years of education, along with 79 independent drivers of health such as smoking, high body mass index, and lack of clean water and sanitation. They then used information on how each of these independent drivers affects specific causes of death to develop forecasts of mortality. 

“The range of ‘better’ and ‘worse’ scenarios enables stakeholders to examine potential changes to improve health systems – locally, nationally, and globally,” Murray said. “These scenarios offer new insights and help to frame health planning, especially regarding long lag periods between initial investments and their impacts, such as in the research and development of drugs.”

In addition to calling attention to the growing importance of non-communicable diseases, the analysis exposes a substantial risk of HIV/AIDS mortality rebounding, which could undo recent life expectancy gains in several nations in sub-Saharan Africa.

Furthermore, while NCDs are projected to rise in many low-income countries, communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases are likely to remain among the leading causes of early death, thereby creating a “double burden” of disease.