Raila withdrawal: Is the Opposition chief conceding defeat?
By Janelynn Njuki
The last couple of weeks, since the historic nullification of President Uhuru Kenyatta’s reelection victory by the Supreme Court on September 1, the political atmosphere has been marred by anxiety and constitutional confusion orchestrated by the Opposition.
As much as it was an immediate political gain for the National Super Alliance (NASA) coalition, the decision that confirmed the judiciary’s independence, also put in motion the gradual fall of Opposition doyen Raila Odinga.
While the son of Jaramogi Oginga Odinga possesses such a significant political charm that by now, he should have been president, the prominent opposition leader in Kenyan politics and the defacto Luo nation political spokesperson, continues to remain an outcast just peeping into State House.
The political misfortune tormenting ‘baba’, as his supporters popularly refer to him, can only be equated to a family curse.
His father, the late Jaramogi Oginga Odinga, Kenya’s father of opposition politics, made several attempts from the time of KANU in the 1960s, during the formation of the Kenya People’s Union (KPU) in 1966, when he formed FORD, the first major opposition party till its split to FORD-Asili and FORD-Kenya — a division that led to his defeat and that of the opposition during the December 1992 General Election.
EARLY ACCEPTANCE
Having lost his best bet in 2007, Mr Odinga’s zeal to soldier on for the fourth time, saw him get political rejection in the August 8, 2017 election, making history too as the only candidate, who, despite the intense political labor, has never won a presidential election after four attempts in Africa.
Having realised that he will never ascend the presidential ladder, and being at his weakest link, Mr Odinga carefully crafted a withdrawal that can only be interpreted as to the son of Jaramogi, finally, conceding defeat.
His unprecedented withdrawal from the repeat poll barely two weeks to the D-day can only be said to be an early acceptance of his resounding defeat.
It has dawned on Mr Odinga that there is no single chance of him gaining victory through the ballot.
Instead, Mr Odinga and his other feeble NASA co-principals are developing mechanisms intended to either force a coalition government or a caretaker government.
STRONGHOLD INTRUSION
The mass exodus of Mr Odinga’s allies and the serious intrusion that the Jubilee Party has launched on what were perceived to be his strongholds, has only left him with only one option, to concede defeat.
A huge percentage of votes that Jubilee got in some NASA strongholds like the about 30 per cent delivered by former Bungoma Governor Ken Lusaka — the highest that any candidate outside the opposition party has ever received — is causing jitters to Mr Odinga.
And the Eugene Wamalwa factor in Trans-Nzoia has also contributed to the unstoppable downfall of Mr Odinga while Jubilee steadily gains ground.
In addition, the defection of former ODM Secretary General and now Labor Party leader Ababu Namwamba, has also contributed to Mr Odinga’s political end.
Also significant in contributing towards Mr Odinga’s forced concession is the unpredicted defection to Jubilee of former Mombasa Senator Hassan Omar Hassan.
More salt to Mr Odinga’s political wound is the support to Jubilee of Nyali MP Mohamed Ali who has split the Mombasa vote besides a full basket of development goodies that the President has delivered and promised the people of the Coastal region.
POLITICAL IDEOLOGIES