Omicron Variant Likely to Become the Dominant Coronavirus

The Covid-19 Omicron variant (B.1.1.529), first discovered in South Africa in Early November could become the dominant variant globally, says the World Health Organization (WHO).

Despite the Delta variant still accounting for 99 percent of all infections worldwide, the Omicron type is already present in 38 countries across all six WHO regions.

Cases globally continue to surge, with more than 266 million cumulative reported cases and over 5.27 million deaths.

Despite these developments, the world is focused on the current concerns raised by the highly mutated and transmissible Omicron variant.

The rapid rates of infections caused by the Omicron have become a public concern. According to health experts, the variant has far outpaced any of the other recorded variants.

According to Angelique Coetzee, the South African Medical Association chair, the effective reproduction number (R) for Omicron has been estimated to be above six.

“We know currently that the virus is transmissible. According to the scientists, the R-value is 6.3, the value for Delta was just over five,” she said.

When the Omicron variant was still new, cases in South Africa were averaging at 266 per day. These cases have now hit a daily average of 8,861. The cases, according to scientists, are doubling every three days.

What’s worse about the Omicron is that it underscores the issue children are not only able to become infected, but they can become very ill. There has been a rise in hospitalization of children under the age of five.

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Infants under the age of two account for about 10 percent of hospital admissions in Tshwane, the epicenter of the Omicron outbreak in South Africa.

The incidence of admissions for children under five is second only to those over the age of 60.

“Over 100 children under the age of five were admitted in the first two weeks of the fourth wave. In the first two weeks of the country’s third wave, less than 20 children had been hospitalized,” said Dr. Waasila Jassat, Public Health Medicine Specialist in SA.

Amid the rising concerns and public health measures, governments are pressing for vaccine mandates. Only a handful of populations are fully vaccinated.

There has been talk in Kenya that unvaccinated people will not receive any government services unless they show proof of vaccination.

Only 5.5 percent of the population in Kenya are fully vaccinated, that represents 2.93 million people.

Meanwhile, GISAID, which is tracking SARS-CoV-2 variants globally, noted that 35 countries have thus far submitted sequences confirming the presence of the Omicron variant.

South Africa has submitted 228 sequences, accounting for almost 80 percent of all submissions.

The United Kingdom has submitted 84, Ghana 33, the US 27, and Botswana 23. In the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said that 15 states had detected the Omicron variant.

In Europe, the Netherlands, Germany, Portugal, Switzerland, Belgium, Spain, France, Italy, Norway, Denmark, Sweden, Luxembourg, Ireland, and the Czech Republic have reported cases.

The European CDC’s December 2, 2021, threat assessment brief noted that more than 70 cases had been confirmed by 13 European Union and European Economic Area countries by the time of their report.

Based on a recent study out of South Africa that showed a very high rate of reinfection, the presence of multiple mutations in the spike protein of the Omicron VOC indicates a high likelihood of reduction of neutralizing activity of antibodies induced by infection or vaccination.

Preliminary data suggest that the Omicron VOC may be associated with increased risk of reinfection in South Africa. What this implies is that the Omicron variant can evade immunity from previous infections and vaccinations.

What is less clear is if infection with Omicron will produce less, the same, or more severity than Delta. It is still too early to make sense of the severity caused by Omicron.

Generally, children and young adults will have mild symptoms, and inferences in populations that have been vaccinated or previously infected with other variants will muddy attempts to concretize these questions in the initial period.

Unfortunately, countries are taking a cavalier attitude to these developments regarding the Omicron variant. The situation could evolve into a two-strain pandemic, with Delta and Omicron acting side-by-side, rather than one displacing the other.

The reliance on a vaccine-only strategy is shortsighted and irrational since it is all calling for the population to get vaccinated and hoping for the best.