Kenyan Shilling Hits The Lowest In History Against The Dollar

The Kenyan shilling remained relatively stable, depreciating marginally by 0.02 percent against the US dollar to close the week at 113.63 shillings from 113.60 shillings recorded the previous week.

The depreciation, according to Cytonn Report, was partly attributable to increased dollar demand from the oil and energy sectors.

Key to note, this is the lowest the Kenyan shilling has ever depreciated against the dollar. On a YTD basis, the shilling has depreciated by 0.4 percent against the dollar, in comparison to the 3.6 percent depreciation recorded in 2021.

Pressure on the shilling:

Pressure on the shilling will continue coming from the increased demand from merchandise traders as they beef up their hard currency positions in anticipation of more trading partners reopening their economies globally.

An ever-present current account deficit due to an imbalance between imports and exports, with Kenya’s current account deficit estimated to come in at 5.4 percent of GDP in 2021 will pile pressure on the shilling.

The deficit expanded by 27.4 percent in Q3’2021 to 184.6 billion shillings, from 145.0 billion shillings recorded in Q3’2020, attributable to a robust increase in merchandise imports by 39.6 percent to 321.8 billion shillings in Q3’2021, from 230.5 billion shillings in Q3’2020.

The aggressively growing government debt, with Kenya’s public debt, has increased at a 10-year CAGR of 18.4 percent to 8.0 trillion shillings in December 2021, from 1.5 trillion shillings in December 2011 thus putting pressure on forex reserves to service some of the public debt.

The rising global crude oil prices are on the back of supply constraints at a time when demand is picking up with the easing of COVID-19 restrictions and as economies reopen. Key to note, risks abound this global recovery following the emergence of the new COVID-19 variants.

Support for the shilling

High Forex reserves, currently at USD 8.2 bn (equivalent to 5.0-months of import cover), which is above the statutory requirement of maintaining at least 4.0-months of import cover, and the EAC region’s convergence criteria of 4.5-months of import cover.

In addition, the reserves were boosted by the USD 1.0 bn proceeds from the Eurobond issued in July 2021 coupled with the USD 972.6 mn IMF disbursement and the USD 130.0 mn World Bank loan financing received in June 2021.

Improving diaspora remittances evidenced by a 17.0% y/y increase to USD 350.6 mn in December 2021, from USD 299.6 mn recorded over the same period in 2020, which has continued to cushion the shilling against further depreciation.

Read More: Kenyans To Finally Have A Digital Shilling From CBK