Kenya’s Three Lost Years: A Critique Of Ruto’s Presidency

When William Samoei Ruto took the oath of office as Kenya’s fifth President in September 2022, his central promise was the “bottom-up economic transformation agenda.” It was a bold campaign message that resonated with millions of struggling Kenyans, painting a vision where hustlers would rise from poverty and gain access to affordable credit, jobs, and opportunities. Three years later, the lived reality of Kenyans is the complete opposite: a country in economic despair, social unrest, and broken promises.

The most striking truth three years later is poverty. Data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) and other development partners paint a grim picture: over 67% of Kenyans live below the poverty line. This means that more than two-thirds of the population cannot afford basic needs like food, shelter, and healthcare. The dream of affordable living has been shattered.

Food inflation remains the biggest driver of poverty. In 2022, a 2kg packet of maize flour cost about KSh 120–130. Today, it retails at over KSh 220 in most outlets, with some places recording even higher. Cooking oil, which retailed at KSh 280 per liter in 2022, now averages KSh 450–500. Bread, a staple for urban households, has risen from KSh 50 per loaf to nearly KSh 80. These are not just numbers—they are a reality that forces families to skip meals and children to go to bed hungry.

The government blames global shocks, Russia-Ukraine war dynamics, and climate change for food inflation. But the deeper issue lies in poor policy execution. Kenya remains a net food importer despite its vast arable land. Instead of empowering smallholder farmers with subsidies, extension services, and affordable fertilizers, the administration has allowed middlemen and cartels to profit at the expense of producers and consumers alike.

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Unemployment is the second crisis. The campaign promise of creating jobs has collapsed under the weight of economic mismanagement. Today, nearly 73% of Kenyans who are of working age are either unemployed or underemployed. With a working-age population of about 35 million, this translates into more than 25 million people without meaningful work. Graduates roam the streets, boda boda riders earn peanuts, and professionals seek greener pastures abroad.

The jobs crisis has worsened because of the collapse of manufacturing. In the last three years, more than 100 manufacturing firms have closed shop or relocated to neighboring countries like Uganda, Rwanda, and Tanzania. The reasons are obvious: high cost of electricity, punitive taxes, corruption, and logistical inefficiencies. Instead of making Kenya an industrial hub, the government has presided over de-industrialization.

Electricity, once a basic utility, has now become a luxury. Over 60% of Kenyans cannot afford consistent access to power. Between 2022 and 2025, electricity tariffs have risen by more than 60%, partly because of IPP (Independent Power Producer) contracts that remain shrouded in secrecy. As households go dark, the government’s promise of universal electrification by 2030 looks increasingly hollow.

Fuel prices are another cornerstone of this crisis. In 2022, a liter of super petrol was KSh 159. Today, it averages between KSh 210–230. Diesel, essential for transportation and farming, has crossed KSh 200 per liter. These increases ripple through the economy, raising the cost of food, transport, and production. Instead of cushioning citizens, the administration doubled down on taxes, imposing VAT and levies that further push prices up.

Healthcare has deteriorated into a burden. More than 89% of Kenyans today pay out-of-pocket for medical bills. The NHIF reform was touted as a game-changer, but inefficiencies, corruption, and lack of proper financing have crippled the system. Families are being pushed into poverty by hospital bills, while public hospitals face constant strikes, drug shortages, and dilapidated infrastructure.

Education, once a source of hope, is collapsing. The rushed implementation of the Competency-Based Curriculum (CBC) continues to confuse parents, teachers, and learners. Tuition costs have risen, with university students struggling to afford higher fees after government cuts in funding. Primary and secondary schools grapple with overcrowded classes and inadequate facilities. Dreams of upward mobility through education are dimming.

Corruption under Ruto’s administration has reached historic highs. What shocks Kenyans most is not just the scale of corruption, but its normalization. Procurement scandals, inflated tenders, and politically connected cartels dominate the state. Billions are siphoned off while Kenyans are told to tighten their belts. For many, corruption has become “legalized theft.”

Non-Performing Loans (NPLs) highlight another silent crisis. According to CBK data, NPLs have crossed the 16% mark in 2025—the highest in two decades. This means nearly one in every six loans issued by banks is not being repaid. Businesses and households are drowning in debt they cannot service. Auctions of homes, land, and vehicles are happening left, right, and center as banks move to recover loans. This is a clear indicator of economic distress.

The promise of the Hustler Fund, launched with much fanfare in December 2022, has failed to deliver. The idea of affordable credit to the masses quickly turned into a poorly managed digital lending scheme with minimal impact. Repayment rates are low, beneficiaries complain of tiny loan limits, and the fund has not stimulated meaningful enterprise growth.

Crime has soared. With poverty and unemployment at record highs, urban centers face daily incidents of robbery, burglary, and violent crime. Police data shows crime rates in Nairobi, Kisumu, and Mombasa have doubled in the last three years. Desperation has pushed youth into gangs, and insecurity is worsening.

Road accidents have also doubled. The National Transport and Safety Authority (NTSA) reports over 5,000 annual deaths on Kenyan roads, making it one of the leading causes of mortality. Poor road designs, corruption in vehicle inspection, and a lack of enforcement of traffic laws all contribute to this tragedy.

Fake and counterfeit alcohol now controls more than 60% of the market. In the last three years, hundreds of Kenyans have died from consuming toxic brews. Yet enforcement remains lax, with some cases pointing to collusion between law enforcers and barons. Public health is at risk, but profit-driven cartels thrive.

Kenya’s exports have dropped drastically. From agricultural exports like tea, coffee, and flowers to manufactured goods, the country has lost competitiveness. Imports, meanwhile, have doubled, particularly food, fuel, and manufactured goods. This has worsened the trade deficit, weakening the shilling further.

Speaking of the shilling, the Kenyan currency has taken a beating. In 2022, it traded at about 120 to the US dollar. In 2025, it crossed the 160 mark, hitting an all-time low. This depreciation makes imports more expensive and fuels inflation. The government’s defense of the shilling has been weak and inconsistent.

The fiscal crisis is undeniable. Kenya loses over KSh 3 billion daily through inefficiencies, corruption, and mismanagement. Public debt has ballooned past KSh 11 trillion, with more than 60% of tax revenue going into debt servicing. Development budgets have shrunk, leaving infrastructure projects stalled.

Meanwhile, Ruto and his close allies have become billionaires overnight. Opulent mansions, flashy cars, and expanded business empires are visible signs of elite enrichment. For ordinary Kenyans, this is salt in the wound: the hustler narrative has been weaponized to consolidate wealth for a few.

Social despair is now deeply entrenched. More Kenyans are turning to drugs, alcohol, and gambling as an escape from reality. Families are breaking apart due to financial strain. The mental health crisis is worsening, with suicide cases rising every year.

The much-hyped bottom-up model has collapsed into empty rhetoric. Instead of lifting hustlers, the system continues to protect dynasties and cartels. Government appointments remain tribal and crony-based, shutting out meritocracy.

What makes the situation worse is the betrayal of hope. Kenyans genuinely believed in change after Uhuru Kenyatta’s administration. The hustler’s message gave them faith. But now, they feel conned, manipulated, and abandoned.

Infrastructure projects remain largely stagnant. Major highways, bridges, and rail projects have slowed or stopped altogether due to a lack of funds. The much-promised housing program has stalled, with affordability questions overshadowing progress.

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The rise in taxes has broken the middle class. VAT increases, fuel levies, housing levy deductions, and income tax burdens have squeezed households. Instead of widening the tax base through growth, the government has resorted to punitive taxation.

Inflation is eating away at savings. Household purchasing power has collapsed, with inflation hovering above 10% for three consecutive years. For ordinary Kenyans, this means perpetual struggle to meet daily needs.

Climate resilience policies are failing. Droughts, floods, and erratic weather patterns continue to devastate livelihoods. Instead of investing in climate-smart agriculture and water infrastructure, the government has been reactive, issuing relief food rather than building resilience.

The security situation in northern Kenya remains fragile. Banditry, terrorism, and cattle rustling continue to claim lives. Promises of securing these regions have yielded little, with security forces underfunded and demoralized.

Foreign relations have not fared better. Kenya’s diplomatic standing has been undermined by erratic policies. Relations with neighbors are strained by trade disputes, while overreliance on China for loans and the US for aid signals a lack of independent foreign policy.

Kenya’s youth, who form the majority of the population, feel betrayed. They were the backbone of the hustler narrative, yet they remain jobless and voiceless. Instead of empowerment, they face police brutality during protests and a lack of opportunities.

The healthcare sector highlights another tragedy: brain drain. Doctors, nurses, and healthcare workers are leaving Kenya in droves for better-paying jobs abroad. This exodus leaves the local healthcare system on the brink of collapse.

The education sector faces a similar brain drain, with teachers seeking opportunities in the Middle East and Europe. Classrooms are left understaffed, and quality suffers.

Tourism, once a reliable foreign exchange earner, has stagnated. Rising insecurity, poor marketing, and global competition have eroded Kenya’s share of the market. Instead of innovative tourism strategies, the sector has been left on autopilot.

The cultural promise of national unity has evaporated. Ethnic divisions are sharper than ever, fueled by tribal appointments and favoritism. Kenyans increasingly feel excluded from government benefits unless they are politically connected.

Meanwhile, parliament and oversight institutions have been weakened. The opposition remains fragmented, while parliamentarians are co-opted through handouts and perks. Checks and balances are dead.

The judiciary faces constant interference. Independent rulings are ignored or undermined, creating an atmosphere of impunity. The rule of law is under threat.

The housing crisis remains unsolved. Instead of affordable homes, developers build for the elite. Slums continue to expand as urban poverty worsens.

The transport sector suffers from corruption and inefficiency. BRT projects are stalled, matatu operators face harassment, and rail services underperform. Ordinary Kenyans struggle daily with commuting.

The agricultural sector, the backbone of Kenya’s economy, remains neglected. Farmers face high input costs, poor market access, and exploitation by cartels. The promise of value addition remains unfulfilled.

Kenyans’ faith in government is at an all-time low. Surveys show trust in state institutions has plummeted. Citizens feel alienated, unrepresented, and ignored.

Instead of hope, despair defines Kenya’s social fabric today. Hunger, unemployment, and hopelessness dominate conversations at homesteads, markets, and workplaces.

The diaspora, once a reliable source of remittances, is also frustrated. While they continue to send billions annually, they feel ignored and exploited through higher remittance fees and a lack of diaspora engagement policies.

The debt burden has compromised sovereignty. Kenya is mortgaging its future, with critical assets at risk of foreign control due to mounting loans.

Kenya’s innovation ecosystem, once vibrant, has stagnated. Startups struggle with high taxes, limited funding, and government red tape. The Silicon Savannah dream is fading.

Sports and arts receive little attention. Talented athletes and artists lack support, infrastructure, and investment. Instead of nurturing talent, the government focuses on short-term populist gestures.

The promise of digital transformation has become another mirage. Projects like digitizing government services are riddled with inefficiencies, while ICT policies remain outdated.

Meanwhile, urban planning remains chaotic. Nairobi’s congestion worsens, garbage piles up, and informal settlements expand unchecked. Counties lack resources to respond effectively.

The mental health crisis has worsened. Depression, anxiety, and suicide are on the rise. Yet the healthcare system is ill-prepared to handle this hidden epidemic.

In three years, the Ruto administration has squandered the goodwill it received. Instead of progress, Kenyans face regression. Every sector—economic, social, political, cultural—shows signs of decline.

The only people who have gained are the ruling elite. Ruto and his cronies have become immensely wealthy, expanding business empires while Kenyans sink deeper into poverty. This dual reality of elite enrichment and mass suffering defines his presidency.

The numbers do not lie: poverty at 67%, unemployment at 73%, inflation above 10%, NPLs above 16%, food prices doubling, and more than 100 firms fleeing Kenya. These are not mere statistics; they are evidence of a failed presidency.

Three years later, life in Kenya has become unbearable. The promise of bottom-up economics has been betrayed. Instead of prosperity, Kenyans face hunger, debt, and despair. Ruto’s presidency has become a cautionary tale of how populism and poor governance can destroy a nation’s future.

And so, the conclusion is inescapable: Ruto has failed. There is no single positive achievement to highlight—unless one counts the wealth accumulated by him and his cronies. For Kenyans, the verdict is clear: Ruto must go.

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