Kenya Met Confirms When Long Rains Are Expected To Begin

The Kenya Meteorological Department (Kenya Met) has issued a comprehensive advisory urging Kenyans across the country to prepare for the onset of the March–April–May (MAM) long rains season, expected to begin in the second week of March.

The Kenya Met latest seasonal outlook indicates that while rainfall will be experienced in many regions, much of the country is likely to record near-average to below-average totals, with significant variation in the timing of onset, distribution, and intensity.

In Central Kenya, the long rains are projected to begin between the second and third weeks of March. Counties expected to receive rainfall within this window include Nyandarua, Laikipia, Nyeri, Kirinyaga, Murang’a, Kiambu, Meru, Embu, Tharaka Nithi, and Nairobi.

Residents in these areas have been advised to monitor local forecasts closely, as rainfall patterns may differ from one county to another, particularly in highland zones where microclimates often influence weather behavior.

For the South Eastern lowlands, rainfall is likely to start slightly later, between the third and fourth weeks of March. The counties of Kitui, Makueni, Machakos, Kajiado, and Taita Taveta fall within this region.

Historically prone to erratic rainfall and prolonged dry spells, these areas may experience uneven distribution of rain, raising concerns for farmers who depend heavily on seasonal precipitation for crop production.

Along the Coastal region, which includes Lamu, Mombasa, Kilifi, and Kwale, the long rains are forecast to begin between the first and third weeks of April. Coastal rainfall often differs from inland patterns due to the moderating influence of the Indian Ocean, and meteorologists note that while showers may be delayed, they could intensify once established.

In the Northern counties, Mandera, Turkana, Isiolo, Marsabit, and Samburu, downpours are expected to commence around the final week of March. These arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs) are particularly vulnerable to fluctuations in rainfall. A delayed or insufficient onset could exacerbate existing water shortages and strain pastoral livelihoods, while sudden heavy storms may trigger flash floods in low-lying areas.

Meanwhile, counties in the Rift Valley region and the Lake Victoria Basin are projected to experience an earlier onset, with rains beginning towards mid-February and intensifying through March, April, and May.

This region includes Siaya, Kisumu, Homabay, Migori, Kisii, Nyamira, Trans Nzoia, Baringo, Uasin Gishu, Elgeyo Marakwet, Nandi, Nakuru, Narok, Kericho, Bomet, Kakamega, Vihiga, Bungoma, Busia, and West Pokot. These agriculturally productive zones rely heavily on the long rains for staple crops such as maize, beans, and tea, and an early onset could provide a timely boost to planting activities.

The Meteorological Department has encouraged farmers, particularly in high-potential agricultural areas, to begin land preparation in February in line with recommended agronomic practices. Early preparation allows planting holes to be exposed to direct sunlight, which helps eliminate harmful soil-borne pests and pathogens. Experts say timely land preparation increases the likelihood of successful germination once the rains begin.

Farmers are also advised to use certified seeds, adopt water conservation techniques, and stagger planting dates where possible to reduce the risks associated with uneven rainfall distribution. In regions expected to receive below-average rainfall, drought-tolerant crop varieties are recommended.

The advisory comes at a time when much of the country continues to experience hot, dry, and sunny conditions. January and February are traditionally Kenya’s hottest and driest months, occasionally punctuated by isolated showers, especially over Central Kenya and areas around the Lake Victoria Basin.

However, this year’s dry spell has been marked by particularly cold nights in some highland areas and elevated daytime temperatures across much of the country.

The prolonged dry weather has already led to water shortages and dwindling pasture in several counties, especially in the northern pastoral regions. Livestock-keeping communities have reported increased trekking distances in search of water and grazing land, placing additional strain on both animals and herders.

As the dry conditions persist, cases of wildfires have risen in forests and game reserves. The Meteorological Department has cautioned the public against engaging in activities that could spark fires, such as careless disposal of cigarette butts, uncontrolled burning of farmland, or leaving campfires unattended.

Authorities warn that dry vegetation, coupled with strong winds and high temperatures, significantly increases the risk of fast-spreading blazes. While the forecast offers hope for relief from the ongoing dry spell, officials emphasize that variability remains a key feature of this season’s outlook.

Communities are therefore encouraged to stay updated through official weather bulletins and advisories issued by the Kenya Meteorological Department.

As the country transitions from the dry season into the much-anticipated long rains, preparedness, both at household and county levels, will be critical in mitigating risks and maximizing the benefits of the coming rainfall season.

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