Kenya Met Unveils Timeline For Potential El Niño Return

Kenya could once again face the impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation later this year, according to a newly released climate outlook by the Kenya Meteorological Department, Kenya Met.

According to Kenya Met, the report points to a growing likelihood that the country will transition into El Niño conditions in the second half of 2026, potentially reshaping rainfall patterns and triggering both opportunities and risks across different regions.

The outlook suggests that the first half of the year will remain relatively stable, with no major climate disruptions expected. However, a gradual shift may begin around mid-year, signaling the onset of El Niño conditions.

By the period between June and December, the probability of El Niño developing is projected to rise to between 58 and 61 percent, based on multi-model climate forecasts.

Experts note that these conditions could become more pronounced toward the end of the year, particularly during the October–November–December (OND) short rains season. During this period, El Niño typically enhances rainfall in many parts of East Africa, and Kenya is expected to be no exception.

Regions in eastern and central Kenya may experience significantly increased precipitation, which could help recover from earlier dry spells but also elevate the risk of flooding, especially in low-lying and flood-prone river basins.

El Niño itself is a naturally occurring climate phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean.

Occurring every two to seven years, it disrupts global weather systems and can lead to extreme conditions such as droughts in some regions and heavy rainfall in others. It is also associated with a general rise in global temperatures during its peak phases.

Despite the projections, the meteorological department cautions that the forecast remains probabilistic. This means that while the likelihood of El Niño forming is increasing, its exact timing, strength, and impacts will depend on how ocean and atmospheric conditions evolve in the coming months.

If the anticipated enhanced rainfall materializes, several sectors could benefit. Agriculture, for instance, may see improved crop yields due to better soil moisture, while increased water levels could boost hydropower generation.

However, these gains may be offset by challenges such as heightened risks of flooding, damage to infrastructure, and the spread of vector-borne diseases like malaria and dengue, which tend to thrive in wetter conditions.

To address these potential outcomes, the report outlines a range of preparedness measures tailored to different regions.

In drier areas, authorities and communities are encouraged to adopt drought-tolerant crops, invest in water harvesting systems, and implement livelihood diversification strategies such as cash transfer programs to strengthen food security and reduce vulnerability.

Meanwhile, regions likely to receive above-average rainfall are advised to prioritize early warning systems, reinforce infrastructure such as drainage networks and dikes, and enhance disease surveillance.

The report also highlights the importance of value addition for agricultural surpluses, integrated pest management, and efficient water use to build long-term resilience.

Looking at the shorter-term forecast, the March–April–May (MAM) rainy season is expected to bring near-average to above-average rainfall to key regions, including the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands both west and east of the Rift Valley, covering areas such as Nairobi, the Rift Valley itself, and parts of northwestern Kenya.

In contrast, near-average to below-average rainfall is anticipated in the Southeastern Lowlands, Northeastern Kenya, and parts of the northwest, while the Coastal region is likely to experience below-average rainfall during this period.

As Kenya navigates these evolving climate signals, the report underscores the importance of preparedness, adaptive planning, and continuous monitoring to minimize risks while maximizing potential benefits associated with a possible El Niño year.

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