Political Instability And Civil Unrest Top Business Risks In Kenya for 2026

Kenyan businesses are bracing for another turbulent year ahead, months after Gen Z-led demonstrations. Political instability and civil unrest have overtaken economic volatility as the top hazards facing companies in the next year, according to new findings from the World Security Report 2025 by Allied Universal and G4S.

According to the report, 45% of Kenyan chief security officers (CSOs) rank political instability as their biggest concern, closely followed by civil unrest at 43% both well above regional averages. More than 1 in 5 companies (21%) expect to be directly affected by protests or demonstrations over the next year, the highest rate reported anywhere in Sub-Saharan Africa.

While fears of political unrest grow, there’s a glimmer of optimism on the economic front: concerns over instability have fallen to 41%, down from 52% last year. Yet fraud, largely driven by financial pressures, remains the leading external threat, cited by 41% of firms.

“Political and civil unrest can have an immediate and costly impact on businesses and investor confidence, and security leaders are preparing to bolster their physical security programs in response,” said Laurence Okelo, Managing Director of G4S Kenya. “The predicted easing of economic instability provides some room for optimism, but companies must continue building resilience through security upgrades, workforce safety, and contingency planning.”

Physical security budgets are set to increase, according to 79% of Kenyan businesses, one of the highest rates in the region. Their top priorities are investment in new technology and infrastructure (83%), risk assessments (71%), and regulatory compliance (66%).

These are key findings from the World Security Report, commissioned by Allied Universal®, the world’s leading security and facility services provider, and its international business, G4S.

2,352 chief security officers (CSOs) in 31 countries at medium and large, global companies with total revenue exceeding $25 trillion took part in the research. 58 security chiefs from Kenya and 174 in total from Sub-Saharan Africa were surveyed. The report also incorporates the crucial perspectives of 200 global institutional investors managing over $1 trillion in assets.

Economic losses stemming from the Gen-Z-led protests have been significant, with retail and hospitality particularly affected. CSOs underline the potential costly fallout from security incidents, with nearly half (45%) reporting revenue losses as a result. More companies in Kenya than anywhere else in Sub-Saharan Africa also experienced increased insurance costs.

Institutional investors echoed these concerns, warning that a major security incident could reduce the value of a listed company by as much as 32%.

“Consistent with the 2023 findings, fraud is the dominating internal and external threat across the region, which can be tied back to economic instability. Despite these challenges, there are plenty of opportunities across the region, and it is encouraging to see the planned investment in smart security infrastructure and AI-powered video surveillance,” said Christo Terblanche, regional president of G4S in Africa.

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