Prices Of The Following Food Commodities To Rice As CBK Warns Kenyans

Kenyan households could be staring down another round of rising food costs, as patchy rainfall in the country’s key growing regions starts to show up in the numbers the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) is watching most closely.

The bank’s latest Agriculture Sector Survey paints a mixed picture, some relief on staples, but mounting pressure elsewhere.

Maize grain and maize flour are actually expected to get cheaper in the coming month, a bit of good news for a country where the two are dietary bedrock. But that’s about where the good news ends.

Potatoes are shaping up to see the sharpest price jump, according to survey respondents, with traditional vegetables, peas, spinach and fresh unpacketed milk all expected to follow the same upward path. Tomatoes, onions, carrots and the maize products, by contrast, are tipped to get cheaper.

“Overall, the July 2026 survey points to a modest increase in near-term inflation expectations, mainly reflecting emerging supply-side risks,” CBK noted in the report.

Behind the numbers is a familiar culprit, rain, or the lack of it. Survey respondents flagged crop failures in parts of the North Rift and Western Kenya, regions that carry outsized weight when it comes to the country’s food supply.

Maize has taken a particular hit, with the survey’s balance of opinion on expected output sitting at just two per cent, a figure CBK ties directly to depressed rainfall in the areas that grow most of the country’s maize.

Maize isn’t alone, respondents also see declines coming for rice, millet, wheat, onions, beans and potatoes, a fairly broad slice of what ends up on Kenyan plates.

All of this is feeding into how people expect prices to move more broadly. Nearly 57 per cent of respondents said they expect inflation to rise over the next month, a jump from 47.9 per cent when the survey was last run in June.

Look further out, and the picture holds, 57.5 percent expect inflation to climb over the next three months, up from 48.5 per cent previously.

Weather remains the dominant worry, 94 percent of respondents pointed to rainfall and broader weather patterns as the biggest driver of food prices, with transport costs close behind at 93 per cent.

Global events are leaving their mark too, 72 percent said they’ve felt the effects of the U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict on retail prices, largely through higher oil prices and knock-on disruptions to supply chains.

Labour costs (71 percent) and input prices (62 percent) rounded out the list of pressures respondents flagged. For their part, farmers have been fairly specific about what would actually help.

Read Also: Here Is The List Of Food And Commodity Prices Expected To Rise