Nearly 6 In 10 Ride-Hailing Drivers Expect Demand to Drop If Fares Rise – Ipsos Survey

Higher ride-hailing fares could significantly change how people use mobility services and create potential challenges for driver earnings, according to a new survey by Ipsos Kenya.

The independent study examined the views and experiences of ride-hailing passengers and drivers regarding proposed minimum-fare regulations. It explored respondents’ perceptions of the potential implications for affordability, ride-hailing usage, passenger demand, driver earnings, and livelihoods.

The findings point to a common dynamic across both groups: changes in fares could affect demand, with consequences extending beyond the price of an individual trip.

The passenger survey found that 64% of surveyed ride-hailing passengers said they would reduce or stop using ride-hailing if fares increased. The dominant response was to reduce frequency rather than abandon the service, with 54% saying they would use ride-hailing less often and 10% saying they would stop altogether.

Ride-hailing remains an important mobility option among those surveyed, with 52% describing it as essential to getting around, while 88% attached at least some importance to the service.

The research also suggests that fare increases could influence mobility beyond ride-hailing itself. Among surveyed passengers who said they would reduce or stop using ride-hailing following a fare increase, 76% said they would turn to public transport, while 21% said they would simply make fewer trips.

For many surveyed drivers, ride-hailing represents a significant source of livelihood. 65% said that 75% or more of their monthly income comes from ride-hailing, while 84% reported driving seven or more hours a day.

When asked about the potential implications of higher fares, 57% of surveyed drivers said they expected fewer trip requests. Among drivers anticipating fewer requests, 65% believed this would reduce their overall monthly ride-hailing earnings.

The research also highlights a distinction between potential earnings per trip and anticipated overall earnings. While 34% of surveyed drivers identified higher earnings per trip as a potential impact of higher fares, only 17% expected their overall earnings to increase.

The ability to absorb a potential reduction in income also appears limited among those surveyed. 58% of drivers said finding another source of income would be difficult if their ride-hailing earnings dropped significantly.

The passenger findings indicate that price is one of several considerations when choosing a ride-hailing service. Safety was the leading consideration, cited by 49% of surveyed passengers among their top two factors. Affordability and reliability followed at 41% each, while convenience was cited by 40%. This suggests that riders assess ride-hailing based on a combination of affordability, safety, reliability, and convenience, rather than price in isolation.

When asked about their perceptions of the proposed higher minimum fares, 55% of surveyed passengers perceived the potential impact negatively, compared with 24% who perceived it positively. The most identified concerns were that higher fares could make ride-hailing less affordable, cited by 34%, and reduce access to transport, cited by 21%.

Overall, the study provides insight into how surveyed passengers and drivers perceive potential fare changes and how they anticipate such changes could affect ride-hailing usage, passenger demand, and driver earnings.

The findings indicate a potential relationship between the different elements of the ride-hailing market: surveyed passengers reported that fare increases may influence how frequently they use ride-hailing, while surveyed drivers indicated that changes in passenger demand may, in turn, influence their overall earnings. These findings represent reported expectations and perceptions and should not be interpreted as forecasts of actual future market behavior.

“The research highlights the relationship between fares, passenger demand and driver earnings within the ride-hailing market. Surveyed passengers, who had booked a trip through a ride-hailing platform between June and August 2026, reported that fare changes may influence how frequently they use these services, while surveyed drivers indicated that changes in demand may affect their earnings,” said Soyinka Witness, Director, Ipsos Kenya.

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