Is high fertility rate in Kenya affecting economic growth?

According to UNICEF the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) refers to the number of children born per woman, if she were to live to the end of her childbearing years, and bear children at every age in accordance to prevailing age-specific fertility rates.

Theoretically, a rate of two children per woman is considered the replacement rate for any given population. Currently, the total fertility rate in Kenya is 3.54%, a rate that is indicative of population growth to the extent that its median age declines.

Numerous studies and research in developing countries including Kenya have negatively correlated high Total Fertility Rates to GDP per capita. High fertility rate in Kenya translates to difficulties for families especially in educating, feeding and providing adequate healthcare for their children; not forgetting hindrance of women from gaining meaningful education and from entering the labor force.

In 2005, research conducted by World Bank on 183 developed and developing countries resulted in a strong correlation coefficient of 0.52, which basically validates that a decrease in fertility rate is likely to increase the GDP per Capita and individual income.

Fertility rates (2014 estimates) of developed countries particularly US and UK are relatively lower than those of developing countries such as Kenya and Tanzania which are 1.9, 1.9, 3.54 and 5.2 respectively.

A graphical illustration of fertility rates of these countries over time confirms that fertility rates of developed countries have always been lower than those of developing countries, regardless of women in developed countries being able to take care of more children.

Data source: World Bank, World Development Indicators – Last updated April 23, 2013

During the financial crisis in the US, a resulting accelerated fall in fertility rates was recorded. By 2013, a record low fertility rate of 6.3 per 1000 births was recorded; simply because Americans value the family’s good standard of living, and until they are able to achieve that, the fertility levels will continue to suffer (This is in comparison to 28.3 per 1000 births recorded in Kenya). However, in the long-term, when fertility rates plunge lower than what is acceptable, it poses another economic problem. Fewer children today will translate to a smaller workforce decades to come, which could slow down economic growth, reduce future income and employment opportunities; and negate productivity as well as major technological innovation gains attained so far.

On the other hand, for Kenya and many other developing countries, the trend is significantly opposite. This is because the income class recording the highest fertility rate in Kenya is the poor. In 2013, a report by the Kenyan Council for Population and Development (NCPD) and United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) on Kenya Population Situation Analysis attributed this trend to the high demand for children and is a trend unlikely to change unless there is push for changes in desired family sizes amongst the poor.

Until high fertility rates among the poor in Kenya are lowered, the possibility of reducing poverty and improving Kenya’s GDP per Capita is minimal. Our economy will continue to suffer as more of the average Kenyan’s income goes into social amenities as opposed to developmental purposes leading to further drop in Kenya’s GDP per Capita.