Becoming Kenya’s 5th President: The Road Ahead

Article 138(4) of the Constitution of Kenya 2010 stipulates that a winning presidential candidate in the forth- coming general elections of August 8, 2017 is to garner a simple majority vote (50 +1%) as well as 25% of the votes in at least 24 of the 47 counties. Short of this, the first and second contenders in the race would face off in a second round of elections- a run off.

Article 138 of the Constitution is anchored on “how many of those registered voters turn up on the election day to vote”. So, that if out of projected 22 million registered voters only 15 Million turn out to vote, then the person to clinch the Presidential seat will be the one who gets at least 10,000,000 plus one votes and also gets at least 25 percent of votes cast in at least 24 Counties.

The contest for the Presidential seat will thus be determined by the total number of votes cast countrywide to determine what of those total votes constitute 50 percent plus one vote and then next the total votes cast in each of the 47 counties to determine if the candidate with 50 percent plus one vote also has at least 25 percent of the votes in 24 Counties. So, each valid vote cast will matter in who becomes the President of Kenya after the final poll results have been announced by the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.

The formula of determining who will be the winner in the Presidential race may look simple as enacted by the Constitution but it has in built potential for conflict, disputes and jolting Kenya like 2007.

This is a reason why the Political Parties’ nominations are important for the electorate before they cast their vote.

There is no certainty as to the integrity of the results that will be generated from across Kenya to settle the issue of the total votes cast to start the arithmetic of deciding who is the winner, if any, at the first round.

For instance, in 2013, in the run-up to the elections, many political analysts had predicted the unlikelihood of any candidate to securing the 50 + 1% mark required to win the presidential election in the first round. However, Mr. Uhuru Kenyatta won the vote in the first round with a popular vote of 6,173,433 of the 12,330,028 votes cast; representing 50.07%.

Out of the 14,350,000 registers, a total of 12,330,028 voters cast their votes on the polling day. This represented a record 86% voter turnout according to IEBC data.

In the previous elections, only 13 parties fielded candidates across the country. They included: The National Alliance (TNA), United Democratic Forum Party (UDFP), United Republican Party (URP), Alliance for Real Change, Restore and Build Kenya, Safina Party, Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), Wiper, Ford – Kenya, New Ford – Kenya and Party of Action (POA).

There were 7 presidential candidates: Mr. Raila Odinga, Mr. Uhuru Kenyatta, Mr. Peter Kenneth, Mr. Musalia Mudavadi, Mr. Mohammed Abduba Dida, Mr. Paul Muite, and Ms. Martha Karua.

Ahead of the 2017 polls, TNA and affiliated parties teamed together to form the Jubilee Party with Mr. uhuru Kenyatta as its flag bearer,  Dr. Ekuru Aukot, the former Secretary of the Committee of Experts (CoE) has announced to succeed Uhuru through his Thirdway Alliance, Nyamira senator Kennedy Mong’are under the Federal Party of Kenya and Budalangi Member of Parliament Ababu Namwamba under the Labour Party of Kenya.

However, Cord co-principals Raila Odinga, Kalonzo Mu