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Total maize production in Kenya to decline by 28 mn bags in 2017

BY Soko Directory Team · July 10, 2017 07:07 am

Maize production is expected to decline by 24.3 percent to 28 mn bags in 2017 from 37 mn bags in 2016, against the country’s food security requirement of 40 mn bags reports Cytonn Investments.

The decline is attributable army worm invasion in the key maize-producing regions in the country that is expected to cut production by approximately 5.0 percent and poor weather conditions for maize production characterized by rainfall shortages in maize-rich Uasin Gishu and Trans-Nzoia Counties, expected to cut production by a further 20.0 percent.

“This is likely to exert upward pressure on food prices come 2018, thus leading to an increase in the inflation rate and could also have an impact on the currency as we import maize to bridge the gap,” says the Analysts.

Read: Sugar price unlikely to fall, despite 36pc rise in imports 

Kenya’s trade deficit increased by 43.1 percent  to Kshs 352.5 bn from January to April 2017, from Kshs 246.3 bn in a similar period in 2016, despite improving by 7.4 percent m/m from March to April 2017, and by 18.7 percent  m/m from January to February 2017.

Kenya’s trade balance trend in the last 10-years I Cytonn Investment


Kenya’s trade balance began to narrow in 2015/16, attributed to lower global oil prices that led to a lower value of fuel imports.

“However, we note that the deficit begun to deteriorate in 2016/17 mainly attributed to imports growing faster than exports as follows: Imports increased by 23.6 percent driven by increases in imports of fuels, machinery & transport and manufactured products by 48.9 percent, 23.8 percent and 10.3 percent, respectively, with the three jointly contributing 62.7 percent to total imports, and, Exports increased marginally by 2.4 percent, attributed to a 7.1 percent increase in the value of tea exports, despite a 7.4 percent decline in the value of horticultural exports, with the two contributing 24.6 percent and 21.8 percent of total exports, respectively.”

Cytonn expects the trade balance to remain at a deficit in the medium term as the country develops because weather-dependent agricultural products make up more than 50.0 percent  of Kenya’s exports.

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