Kenya’s Food Market Under Strain: A Deep Dive into Commodity Prices And What They Mean For Households And The Economy – June 2025 Review

The Kenyan food market in June 2025 is sending powerful signals of distress, volatility, and imbalance. A look at key staples—maize, wheat, rice, sorghum, millet, and beans—reveals a system grappling with climatic uncertainty, supply chain bottlenecks, global economic pressures, and poor policy coordination.

Dry maize, the heart of Kenya’s staple food economy, currently retails at between KSh 3,700 and KSh 4,800 in Nairobi. While this may seem moderate compared to past spikes, the National Cereals and Produce Board (NCPB) continues to buy maize at KSh 3,000—a price far below market levels. This mismatch signals the state’s inability to adequately stabilize food prices and protect both farmers and consumers.

Kisumu, Kakamega, and Uasin Gishu show uniform pricing of KSh 4,000 for dry maize, which reflects regional price averaging likely caused by cooperative movements and localized bumper harvests. However, Mombasa and Machakos register higher maize prices at KSh 4,500, revealing the costs of transport, storage, and distribution in non-producing regions.

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Wheat prices are unified at KSh 5,300 per 90kg bag across the six towns. This comes directly from the government’s set minimum price for top-grade wheat. While this uniformity suggests some policy success, it fails to hide the reality that Kenya is a wheat-importing country, and any external disruption can cripple this illusion of stability.

Notably, the KSh 5,300 price also signals a deliberate attempt by the state to promote wheat farming locally. But this move must be matched with better infrastructure, fertilizer access, and irrigation support, else it becomes yet another price-control exercise with no transformative effect.

Rice (IRR), a 50kg bag, shows stark regional price variation. Nairobi consumers buy it at KSh 6,278.50, while Kisumu and Kakamega face prices as high as KSh 7,812.50. This discrepancy highlights poor rice distribution networks and the capital city’s access to direct imports or millers offering subsidized prices.

The near-uniformity in sorghum prices across all six regions—at KSh 3,357 per 90kg—stands in contrast to the volatility in maize and rice. Sorghum’s consistency reflects its resilience as a drought-tolerant crop and increased investments in local production, especially in dry regions like Eastern and Northern Kenya.

Finger millet, however, is only listed at KSh 6,000 in Nairobi, with no data from other towns. This omission reveals both a data problem and a market distribution issue. Millet is grown widely in western Kenya but lacks structured aggregation and marketing support.

The most dramatic story comes from Canadian beans. Prices stretch from KSh 10,176.60 in Nairobi to KSh 12,300 in Uasin Gishu, Machakos, and Kakamega. The staggering price point is a loud cry from consumers who have turned to beans as a key protein source amid rising meat and milk prices.

What do these numbers tell us about the Kenyan economy? First, food inflation is far from over. Despite hopes of easing prices due to harvest seasons, high costs of transportation, taxation (including the Finance Bill 2024 proposals), and storage continue to exert pressure on both producers and consumers.

Second, the NCPB’s purchasing price of maize at KSh 3,000 looks out of touch with the real market, exposing small-scale farmers to exploitation. It suggests that without reforms in farm gate pricing and timely government procurement, farmers will continue to sell at a loss or hoard.

Wheat pricing at a government-mandated KSh 5,300 is a protective measure that may be working, but only temporarily. If local production is not scaled up fast, Kenya risks suffering from shocks caused by international wheat price surges or geopolitical disruptions.

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Rice is emerging as a semi-luxury in Western Kenya. The high prices in Kisumu and Kakamega make rice unaffordable for many, deepening food inequality. The market also reflects how the IRR rice variety is dominating urban diets due to its cooking convenience, despite being costly.

Sorghum’s stability is a success story in disguise. If backed by better marketing and value addition (such as sorghum flour or porridge mixes), it could be Kenya’s true food security champion. The government should invest in this with the same intensity as maize or wheat.

Millet’s underreporting shows the gaps in food data management and tracking. This is dangerous. Lack of proper data undermines food security planning and limits investor interest in such crops, even though they are climate-smart and nutritionally superior.

Canadian beans have become symbolic of Kenya’s import addiction. The country is importing beans while millions of local farmers are unable to access structured markets for their harvests. A rethink is needed to protect and empower local bean producers.

The huge bean price range—spanning KSh 10,176.60 to KSh 12,300—exposes deep cracks in market transparency and price regulation. These disparities should not exist in a country with mobile technology and e-platforms capable of harmonizing price discovery.

This price reality is also a gender issue. Women dominate the retail food economy and household budgeting. Higher prices mean tougher choices for mothers and caregivers—between food and rent, or between school fees and nutrition.

Youth are not spared either. As unemployment persists and food prices soar, the temptation to abandon farming increases. If farming can’t pay, young people will continue fleeing to urban centers or falling prey to crime and false job promises abroad.

Further, the differences in prices across regions show a lack of national integration of food markets. A consumer in Kakamega pays more for rice than one in Nairobi. This is irrational. It implies systemic inefficiencies in transport, warehousing, and market access.

These inefficiencies are worsened by tax creep. The Finance Bill 2024 attempts to introduce or expand VAT on transport and digital payments will indirectly increase the cost of doing food business. The effects will be deeply regressive.

Inflation at the food basket level hurts Kenya’s economy. As families spend more on survival food, they cut back on investment in health, education, and even small-scale businesses. The macroeconomic impact is contractionary.

Urban poor households, already reeling from rent and transport costs, are being pushed to the brink. Food prices are making life in Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kisumu unsustainable for many, despite promises of affordable living under the Bottom-Up agenda.

For rural households, the problem is opposite: low farm gate prices despite high input costs. This disconnect between what farmers earn and what consumers pay points to a cartelized middle chain that absorbs all the value.

What Kenya needs now is a commodity exchange that works. Not in theory, but in practice. Real-time price signals, bulk-buying incentives, and farmer cooperatives can stabilize the market and ensure fair returns for both ends of the chain.

Policy must also shift from subsidies to systems. Instead of endless subsidy programs for fertilizer, the government should invest in storage, irrigation, aggregation centers, and data collection.

Meanwhile, the private sector must be challenged to bring innovation to agriculture. Logistics tech, agribusiness financing, cold chain storage, and food processing should be the focus, not just fintech apps.

As climate change intensifies, the vulnerability of food supply chains will worsen. Kenya must diversify its food sources and build resilience through storage, insurance, and early warning systems.

Finally, Kenyans must demand accountability. Why are beans still unaffordable? Why are transport costs so high? Why is millet underreported? And why are farmers still broke while middlemen thrive?

Until we ask hard questions and implement harder reforms, the food sector will remain both a political punching bag and an economic time bomb.

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