Tough Times Ahead: Depressed Rainfall and More Food Shortages in Kenya

Depressed rainfall is expected over most parts of the country, especially the Eastern sector, during March-May 2018 Long-Rains Season.

However, near-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of Western Kenya, central Rift Valley and parts of central Kenya including Nairobi.

This is according to the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) briefing on the outlook for the March-April-May 2018 Season.

Speaking during the briefing, KMD Director Mr. Peter Ambanje noted that the months of March to May always constitute a major rainfall season in most parts of Kenya as well as much of equatorial Eastern Africa.

Mr. Ambanje further stated that the distribution of March to May 2018 seasonal rainfall, both in time and space, is expected to be generally poor over most parts of the country, adding that this will be more so over the eastern sector and in particular the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs).

“Depressed rainfall is expected over most parts of the country during the month of March 2018. Sunny and dry weather conditions are likely to persist over Northeastern, the Coastal region and some parts of Southeastern and central Kenya during the month,” said Mr. Peter Ambanje.

In April, near-normal to above-normal rainfall is expected over Northwestern, western, central Rift Valley, Northern Kenya (Marsabit area), central and Southeastern Kenya. The rest of the country, especially the Northeastern and the Coastal strip are expected to receive depressed rainfall that will be poorly distributed in time and space.

Most parts of Northwestern, western, coastal strip, central Rift Valley, and central Kenya are likely to experience slightly enhanced rainfall in May while the entire eastern sector of the country is expected to experience depressed rainfall.

The seasonal rainfall onset is expected during the third to fourth week of March over most parts of western Kenya. The better part of the eastern sector, especially Northeastern Kenya is likely to experience the onset during the first to second week of April.

As a result of the forecast, the agricultural counties of Western Kenya, Nyanza, central Rift Valley, central Kenya and parts of Southeastern Kenya where near normal to above normal rainfall performance is expected, the farming communities have been advised to take advantage of the expected rains and maximize crop yield through appropriate land-use management.

Farmers have been asked to liaise with the State Department of Agriculture for advice on the appropriate seeds to be used. The expected late onset in some agricultural areas is, however, likely to impact negatively resulting in delayed planting and germination.

In other agricultural counties like the better part Southeastern Kenya where the rainfall is expected to be depressed, farmers are also advised to liaise with the State Department of Agriculture to get advice on appropriate crops that are drought resistant in order to make the best use of the anticipated poorly distributed and depressed rainfall.

On the other hand, food security is expected to deteriorate over most parts of the country and more so the Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) of Kenya. The poor rainfall performance expected in these areas will also impact negatively on the livestock sector.

In the ASALs, problems related to water scarcity and poor regeneration of pastures and limited water availability for livestock is expected to increase due to the expected depressed rainfall during MAM 2018.

Flash floods are very likely to occur in Western Kenya, Central Rift Valley and Central Highlands due to the expected enhanced rainfall in these areas.

Water resources available for drinking, sanitation, and industrial use are expected to continue diminishing over most of the eastern sector of the country due to the expected depressed rainfall.

This will be more so in Northeastern and Southeastern Kenya. The currently available water should therefore be well managed to cater for the animal and human population needs.