Global Economy to Slow to 2.9% in 2019 as Trade, Investment Weaken

Global economic growth is projected to soften from a downwardly revised 3 percent in 2018 to 2.9 percent in 2019.

International trade and manufacturing activity have softened, trade tensions remain elevated, and some large emerging markets have experienced substantial financial market pressures.

Growth among advanced economies is forecast to drop to 2 percent this year, the January 2019 Global Economic Prospects says.

Slowing external demand, rising borrowing costs, and persistent policy uncertainties are expected to weigh on the outlook for the emerging market and developing economies. Growth for this group is anticipated to hold steady at a weaker-than-expected 4.2 percent this year.

“At the beginning of 2018 the global economy was firing on all cylinders, but it lost speed during the year and the ride could get even bumpier in the year ahead”, said World Bank Chief Executive Officer Kristalina Georgieva. 

Kristalina Georgieva added that as economic and financial headwinds intensify for emerging and developing countries, the world’s progress in reducing extreme poverty could be jeopardized.

“To keep the momentum, countries need to invest in people, foster inclusive growth, and build resilient societies,” said Georgieva.

The upswing in commodity exporters has stagnated, while activity in commodity importers is decelerating. Per capita growth will be insufficient to narrow the income gap with advanced economies in about 35 percent of the emerging market and developing economies in 2019, with the share increasing to 60 percent in countries affected by fragility, conflict, and violence.

A number of developments could act as a further brake on activity. A sharper tightening in borrowing costs could depress capital inflows and lead to slower growth in many emerging markets and developing economies.

Past increases in public and private debt could heighten vulnerability to swings in financing conditions and market sentiment. Intensifying trade tensions could result in weaker global growth and disrupt globally interconnected value chains.

Regional growth in Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to accelerate to 3.4 percent in 2019, predicated on diminished policy uncertainty and improved investment in large economies together with continued robust growth in non-resource intensive countries.

Growth in Nigeria is expected to rise to 2.2 percent in 2019, assuming that oil production will recover and a slow improvement in private demand will constrain growth in the non-oil industrial sector.

Angola is forecast to grow 2.9 percent in 2019 as the oil sector recovers as new oil fields come on stream and as reforms bolster the business environment. South Africa is projected to accelerate modestly to a 1.3 percent pace, amid constraints on domestic demand and limited government spending.