Coffee Production to Hit an All Time Low of 650,000 Bags in 2019/20

Kenya’s coffee production will hit its lowest since independence to 650,000 bags of 60 kilograms in 2019/20, says a forecast by the US Department of Agriculture (USDA).

The drop marks a substantial blow of 13.3 percent especially since the production for 2018 stood at 750,000 bags of 60 kilograms.

In the past, low coffee production in the country was attributed to the high cost of production and labor coupled with cartels oppressing farmers; however, the USDA is associating this year’s drop to effects of drought and the scale-down of crop husbandry by farmers.

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According to the projections, Kenya’s distribution of coffee is in turn expected to drop to unbelievably 830,000 bags as compared to 910,000 bags in the previous financial year.

Consequently, coffee stocks across the country are expected to drop by 40,000 bags to 105,000 bags in 2019/20 compared to the current financial year. These are the stocks held by exporters, millers, and agents.

Inheritance-driven sub-division, according to the USDA, has continued to shrink the size of coffee farms, which is affecting production.

Furthermore, the report notes that 20 percent of coffee mills in Kenya are operating below their capacity, and in a country with two distinct harvest seasons in a year (September-December and March –July), each of which peaks for less than two months, production will be greatly affected.

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“Government’s efforts to promote smallholder coffee production in non-traditional growing areas is countered by a surge in housing developments on farms located in peri-urban areas, leading to an overall stagnation of total coffee production,’’ read a statement by the USDA.

The drop in production has also been affected by the prevalence of pests and diseases, increasing the cost of labor and inputs, and poor governance and policies of marketing cooperatives.

The report is concerned by Kenya’s poor marketing initiatives where farmers are burdened from shouldering losses from the firm to the market.

According to the country’s marketing structure, a batch of coffee belongs to the farmer all the way up until an exporter buys it.

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What this means is that a coffee farmer I Kenya bears all the risks including production and post-production risks like quality deterioration, pilferage, theft, as wells as volatility. This has serious effects on coffee production.

It is, therefore, not surprising that the country’s earnings from coffee in April 2019 declined by 2.8 billion shillings, which is over 23 percent compared to the same period in 2018. This has also been attributed to low international prices, which are affecting the exports.