Covid-19: Kenyan Scientists predict About 400 deaths in April

Some Kenyan scientists have predicted that about 400 people might succumb to Covid-19 in the month of April alone.

The experts have based their prediction on a model by the Ministry of health which revealed that over 10,000 people might get infected at the end of April.

Most countries that have had higher infections have shown a higher mortality rate that can be concluded as Mortality ratio the number of reported cases divided by the number of deaths.

The probability is that, the more the number of infections the more the number of deaths. Thus for every 1,000 infections, there could be about 40 deaths which are about three to four percent.

However, the experts assume that the country is likely to have a higher mortality rate even when the circumstances remain the same.

According to one of the experts, Dr. Mark Nanyingi, an infectious disease epidemiologist, there is a probability that more people might be infected or dead due to the virus thus calling for the Government to be conducting more tests and giving transparent information.

“It’s not clear which models are being used by the Kenyan government, their data sharing protocols lack transparency and therefore there is also uncertainty over the status of the disease within the country,” said Dr. Nanyingi.

“For Kenya, this implies that – in the worst-case scenario – 40 people may die for every 1,000 confirmed cases if no intervention is put in place,” he adds.

Another doctor argues that Kenyans should not live by the notion that the country’s population is youthful thus the probability of a lower mortality rate.

Dr. Nelly Yatich says the argument should be based on various factors that include communicable diseases which can make the covid-19 more severe and maybe death.

Dr. Nelly adds that up to 28 million Kenya might get infected in 2020 if they do not adhere to the distancing and handwashing rules.

“I chose to stick with the global case fatality rate of five percent because even though we have a youthful population, we grapple significantly with both communicable diseases – Aids, tuberculosis, malaria, pneumonia, etc. and non-communicable illnesses,” argued Dr. Yatich.

So far, Kenya has reported 158 cases with six deaths, 4,277 people have been tested at various facilities.

Dr. Yatich advises that if proper measures are put in place, the country can reduce the mortality rate to one percent.

“You test, isolate and trace to minimize community spread. Without this, we are swimming blind.”