East Africa Faces Uneven Rains As Food Security Is Threatened

East Africa is heading into a season of uneven rainfall patterns that could reshape food security, energy generation, and cross-border trade. The latest forecast from IGAD’s Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC) shows a patchwork of excess rains, prolonged dryness, and transition zones that will leave governments juggling between bumper harvests in some regions and looming droughts in others.

At the core of the forecast lies a split reality. Western Kenya, northern Uganda, and parts of southern Sudan are projected to receive above-normal rainfall (40–60% probability). These zones are shaded in green on the map, signaling potential relief for farmers who depend on rain-fed agriculture. For Kenya, this could mean stronger yields in maize-producing counties like Bungoma, Kakamega, and Trans Nzoia, helping offset food inflation that has plagued households since 2022.

But the optimism quickly fades as one moves eastward. The vast swathes of Kenya’s arid and semi-arid lands—stretching from Turkana and Marsabit through Isiolo to northern Kitui and Garissa—are colored orange, marking below-normal rainfall with up to 60% probability. For pastoralist communities, this translates to a prolonged lean season, heightened conflict over pasture, and greater reliance on food aid. The “zone of dryness” aligns with some of the most fragile areas where livestock is both livelihood and currency.

Ethiopia presents an equally mixed outlook. The southern highlands may see moderate rains, but the Somali region and eastern corridor are expected to remain under significant water stress. This will likely worsen food insecurity in areas already grappling with high displacement, while raising tensions with Somalia over shared water resources.

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Tanzania, meanwhile, is not immune. The central and coastal belt leans heavily toward below-normal rainfall, raising questions for the country’s hydro-dependent power sector. Reduced inflows into reservoirs like Mtera and Kidatu could force Tanzania Electric Supply Company (TANESCO) to ration power or turn back to costly thermal generation—risking higher energy tariffs and subdued industrial growth.

Uganda and South Sudan offer a more positive outlook, with higher-than-average rainfall promising better crop output. But heavy rains carry risks of their own—flooding in low-lying areas, destruction of infrastructure, and spikes in waterborne diseases. Already, analysts note that East Africa’s food production systems are highly vulnerable to climate volatility: a season of too much rain can be just as devastating as one with too little.

For Nairobi policymakers, the forecast complicates the government’s flagship Bottom-Up Economic Transformation Agenda. Agricultural revival hinges on stable rainfall, yet the climate map suggests patchwork outcomes. Western breadbasket regions could ease inflationary pressures, but drylands that supply Kenya’s livestock chain will continue to languish. With maize, wheat, and edible oil prices still exposed to global shocks, food security in Kenya will likely remain fragile well into 2025.

Water scarcity in arid Kenya also means heightened risk of conflict. Resource-based clashes in Turkana, Baringo, and Marsabit are expected to intensify, straining internal security and cross-border peace along Ethiopia and South Sudan’s frontiers. Donor agencies will be under pressure to expand humanitarian assistance, while Kenya’s Treasury faces competing demands from debt servicing and drought mitigation.

For investors, the weather outlook sends mixed signals. On one hand, strong rains in western Kenya and Uganda offer upside potential for agribusiness, fertilizer companies, and food processors. On the other, weaker rains in Kenya’s drylands and Tanzania’s energy corridor raise red flags for insurers, infrastructure financiers, and governments banking on steady agricultural tax revenues.

Climate unpredictability also sharpens the debate on green transition financing. East Africa’s reliance on hydropower makes rainfall forecasts not just agricultural indicators but also power market drivers. Drought-induced power shortages in Kenya and Tanzania could push policymakers to accelerate renewable diversification—solar, wind, and geothermal—where the region holds vast untapped potential.

But the political dimension cannot be ignored. In Kenya, where the government is already facing public anger over the cost of living, another season of uneven rainfall could inflame discontent. Food inflation has historically triggered political unrest in Nairobi. A bad harvest in the eastern and northeastern counties risks undermining national cohesion, especially if perceptions grow that some communities are left behind in drought response.

Ethiopia faces a similar test. With the government juggling post-conflict reconstruction and restive regions in Oromia and Tigray, the rainfall deficit in the Somali region could re-ignite grievances. Food insecurity has historically been a catalyst for instability in Addis Ababa’s periphery.

Therefore, IGAD’s forecast paints a picture of climate asymmetry. Winners and losers will emerge across borders: fertile west vs. dry east, smallholder farmers vs. pastoralists, food processors vs. energy utilities. The broader story is one of fragility—East Africa’s economies remain heavily hostage to the sky, with little insulation against climate volatility.

The next six months will test the region’s ability to adapt, finance resilience, and cushion vulnerable households. For Kenya, the rains may bring relief to the west, but for the arid north and east, the season could be another chapter in a long story of scarcity.

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