Every war has casualties and the current one against COVID-19 is no exception going by situation viewed in other countries with researchers from the University of Nairobi (UON) saying Kenya should brace for 41 million infections going by the current rate.
Kenyans have slowly begun drifting into a balloon of ignorance where they hide in denial of the current crisis with most of them staying away from news so as not to know the COVID-19 situation in the current.
Well, if information by the UON Researchers is anything to go by, Kenyans are in grave danger as they have always been warned by the Health Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe but we have chosen to sadly term the updates ‘his’ and rhetoric.
In less than six months, the UON Researchers are projecting that we will have buried 620,000 of our parents, brothers, sisters, aunties, and uncles while 41 million Kenyans will be fighting for their dear lives.
If Kenyans stop unnecessarily filling the streets, observe social distancing, wear quality masks IF THEY MUST GO OUT, avoid touching their eyes, nose, and mouth then it is very likely that the cases will be reduced.
The study notes that with the current rate of infection and restrictions of movement and closure of schools, nearly 32 million people will be infected with 479, 848 dying with the numbers likely to obvious be higher if Kenyans keep on ignoring the directives through corrupt means.
The research study, which was conducted before 6th April 2020 as President Uhuru Kenyatta delivered the order the cessation of movement orders with the study revealing that the current measures by the Ministry of Health will help regulate the spread of COVID-19 but with Kenyans ignorantly corrupting their way, this is further challenged.
The UON projections were presented to the Senate Committee on COVID-19 by Professor Omu Anzala who is a researcher on the Kenya AIDS Initiative team.
“The model assumes uniform transmission throughout the country, however, with intensive preventive measures it would be possible to prevent transmission in particular regions,” Prof. Anzala said.
By mid-September, at least 5,551,243 people will have been infected with mild or asymptomatic COVID-19 cases while 786,344 will be moderately infected as 241,360 will be severely hit according to the study presented by Prof. Anzala.
Nairobi, Kiambu, and Meru are the most vulnerable according to the study with the cases projected to hit a peak in September as acting director-general for Health Patrick Amoth had warned.
It means that with the current measures the higher rates of infection projected by UoN’s department of microbiology are highly unlikely.
If you ever thought the situation viewed in Italy was bad, well, imagine Kenya with 41 million COVID-19 positive cases as projected by the UON Researchers as the worst-case scenario and ask yourself where you will be, is it among those that never let their guard down, the dead or the 41 million who will be on oxygen support?
The UoN researchers are hence recommending that the Kenyan government works towards also building capacity to handle larger numbers as it will require 786,344 hospital beds equipped with 241,360 ventilators in the worst-case scenario with 355,909 beds that will have 114, 740 ICU’s with ventilators.
Nairobi County alone will require 4,420 ICU beds and 13,711 hospital beds, Kericho County will require 6,585 ICU beds and 20,424 hospital beds, as Kiambu county will be needing 3,325 ICU beds and 10,315 hospital beds.
Prof Anzala argued that the on-going COVID-19 testing does not provide a clear picture of the seriousness of the spread in Kenya as it is not targeted and spread out in all the 47 counties through proper sampling.
“Regardless of economic impact, regardless of all these things we are saying, decisions to open or not to open or the stages of how we shall open must be informed by science,” Prof. Anzala said warning the government against any intentions to ease the current restrictive orders without proper guidelines to limit the spread of COVID-19.
Kenya, as of 29th May 2020 has 1,618 confirmed COVID-19 cases and has tested a total of 70,172 samples since it reported the first case on 13th March 2020.