List Of Commodities Whose Prices Are Set To Shoot

As the country continues to grapple with a challenging economic climate, many Kenyans may soon find themselves paying significantly more for essential household products critical to their daily survival.

This warning comes in the wake of a newly released report by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK), which paints a sobering picture of the anticipated cost of living over the coming months.

According to the CBK’s survey, published on Thursday, the prices of cereal products, including key staples such as maize, are expected to rise notably in April and possibly beyond.

The report indicates that the price of sifted maize flour, one of the most widely consumed food items in Kenyan households, is projected to surge by up to 21 percent. This marks a sharp increase from the 9 percent price hike recorded just a month earlier in March.

The upward trajectory in food prices is not limited to maize flour. The survey also forecasts significant increases in the cost of other household essentials such as sugar, cooking fat, and salad cooking oil.

Sugar prices, in particular, are projected to spike dramatically by 26 percent, compared to a marginal 1 percent increase recorded in the previous month.

Cooking oil prices are also set for a notable rise, with respondents anticipating a 15 percent increase, up from the 8 percent rise observed in March.

The surge in food prices extends to fresh produce as well, with tomatoes among the items expected to see a price increase in April.

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This trend is likely to continue into May, driven by the ongoing long rains that, according to meteorological forecasts, are expected to persist into the early weeks of the month. Heavy rainfall, while beneficial to crop growth in the long term, often disrupts supply chains and transportation of perishable produce, leading to short-term price surges.

“Balance of opinion (BOO) on expected price changes shows that prices of key food items are expected to increase in April 2025, mainly cereals and select vegetables,” reads a portion of the CBK survey. “Respondents expect prices of maize products and related items to be relatively higher in April 2025 relative to March 2025, mainly reflecting seasonal patterns.”

However, amidst the rising prices, there is a silver lining. The cost of some fast-growing vegetables such as kale (sukuma wiki), spinach, cabbage, and traditional leafy greens is expected to drop slightly.

These vegetables benefit from the abundant rainfall, which enhances their availability and reduces their market price. This could offer a small but much-needed reprieve for consumers, particularly low-income households that rely heavily on these vegetables as a source of nutrition.

Additionally, the CBK survey suggests that the prices of both broken and unbroken aromatic rice are expected to decline. This anticipated drop in rice prices could further ease the pressure on consumers’ wallets, given that rice is a commonly consumed staple across many Kenyan homes.

The report attributes the expected price fluctuations to a variety of contributing factors. Among the most prominent are middlemen’s influence on market pricing, increasing transportation costs, unpredictable weather patterns, high input and labor costs, and broader geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. The conflict has had far-reaching implications on global food supply chains, influencing the cost and availability of key imports, including cooking oil and cereals.

While the CBK projects that overall inflation may remain relatively stable on average, the expected spikes in essential food items mean that many households could still feel the pinch in very real and immediate ways.

The survey underscores the vulnerability of Kenya’s food economy to both local and global disruptions, highlighting the urgent need for policy interventions that protect consumers from the full brunt of these market forces.

As food prices continue to rise in tandem with global uncertainties and domestic challenges, the average Kenyan family is left bracing for leaner times ahead. Without strategic mitigation efforts, the burden of basic food affordability may become an even heavier load to carry for millions across the country.

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