Kenya Records Sharp Decline In Birth Certificates Reflects Falling Fertility Rates – KNBS Report

Kenya has witnessed a substantial decrease in the number of birth certificates issued across the country over the last two years, highlighting both a demographic shift and administrative hurdles in civil registration.

This is according to the latest findings released by the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS), which links the trend to a significant nationwide drop in fertility rates and logistical issues surrounding the issuance of the official documents.

The KNBS report shows that the number of birth certificates issued fell from 1,987,910 in 2022 to 1,349,949 in 2024, marking a sharp reduction of over 600,000 within just two years. This decline has sparked concern among government officials, policy analysts, and healthcare providers, as it not only underscores a demographic transformation but also reveals gaps in birth registration coverage.

The Bureau attributes the trend to two main factors; A consistent decline in the country’s birth rates over the same period and operational constraints, including a shortage of official birth certificate booklets, which affected timely issuance in some counties.

In 2024, Nairobi County led in the issuance of birth certificates, with a total of 152,433 documents released. The capital was followed by Kiambu County, which issued 67,632 certificates, and Kilifi County, which distributed 62,352. These counties, known for their large populations and higher urbanization levels, have historically maintained higher birth and registration numbers.

On the other end of the spectrum, Samburu County recorded the lowest number of birth certificates at 6,230, followed by Lamu with 6,845, and Isiolo with 9,378. These low figures are reflective of both sparse population densities and possible logistical difficulties in remote regions, where access to civil registration offices remains limited.

In the coastal region, Mombasa County consistently reported the highest number of registered birth certificates over the last three years, despite an overall downward trend.

The county issued; 58,226 certificates in 2022, 57,988 in 2023, and 40,821 in 2024.

Although the drop in 2024 is noticeable, Mombasa still outpaced its coastal peers in document issuance. Kwale County ranked second in the region, issuing 37,080 certificates in 2022, 36,495 in 2023, and 33,915 in 2024.

Meanwhile, Kilifi County showed a unique pattern. After peaking in 2023 with 90,602 certificates, the number dropped sharply in 2024 to 62,352, reflecting both declining birth rates and possible registration backlog due to booklet shortages.

Several other major urban counties also experienced significant reductions in the number of birth certificates issued. Kisumu County dropped from 54,363 in 2022 to 35,511 in 2024, Nakuru County saw a decline from 88,489 to 62,118 in the same period. Uasin Gishu County (home to Eldoret town) also recorded a drop from 52,876 in 2022 to 35,931 in 2024.

The downward pattern in these areas is consistent with national trends and further points to an emerging shift in Kenya’s population growth dynamics.

Parallel to the drop in certificate issuance is a consistent decline in Kenya’s fertility indicators, a trend that has gained momentum over the past few years.

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR), which measures the average number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime, decreased from 2.8 in 2022 to 2.6 in 2023, and further down to 2.3 in 2024.

The General Fertility Rate (GFR), the number of births per 1,000 women aged 15–49, followed a similar path, falling from 98 in 2022, to 88.3 in 2023, and 75.9 in 2024. Likewise, the Crude Birth Rate (CBR), which counts the number of live births per 1,000 people, decreased from 24.1 in 2022 to 21.2 in 2024.

Despite these declines, women in the 20–24 and 25–29 age brackets continued to account for the highest fertility rates throughout the period. For women aged 20–24, fertility dropped from 147 births per 1,000 women in 2022 to 128 in 2024. Among those aged 25–29, the rate decreased from 141 to 117 during the same timeframe.

These findings suggest a broader shift in reproductive behavior, with more women delaying childbirth or opting for smaller families due to socio-economic factors, increased access to family planning services, urbanization, and changing cultural attitudes.

The KNBS report has raised key questions for planners and policymakers. A decline in fertility often leads to a shrinking youth population and can alter national projections for labor, education, and health services. While a falling birth rate can be viewed as a sign of socio-economic advancement, it also poses challenges in the long term, especially if the trend continues without corresponding adjustments in public policy.

Furthermore, the administrative issue of birth registration booklet shortages could potentially deny children their basic right to legal identity, affecting access to health care, education, and social protection services. KNBS has called on relevant government departments to streamline the civil registration process to prevent future backlogs.

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