List Of Basic Commodities Whose Price Are Set To Increase According To CBK Report

A new survey released by the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has projected a rise in the prices of several essential commodities between February and March 2026, with vegetables and maize products leading the anticipated increases.

The findings, contained in the regulator’s Agriculture Sector Survey for February 2026, point to seasonal weather patterns and inflationary pressures as the key drivers behind the looming price adjustments.

According to the report published on Thursday, February 19, a wide range of commonly consumed vegetables are expected to become more expensive in the coming weeks. These include spinach, sukuma wiki (kale), cabbage, onions, tomatoes, carrots, Irish potatoes and peas, staples that form the backbone of daily meals for many Kenyan households.

The projected rise in prices is likely to place additional strain on household budgets, particularly for low- and middle-income families that rely heavily on fresh produce for their daily nutrition.

The CBK attributed the expected increases largely to prevailing sunny and dry weather conditions being experienced in several parts of the country. Reduced rainfall has adversely affected crop growth and yields, leading to lower supplies in local markets. As availability tightens and demand remains steady, prices are naturally edging upwards.

“Balance of Opinion for the January 2026 survey on expected price changes one month ahead points to a general increase in prices, largely driven by seasonal factors,” the CBK report stated. The “Balance of Opinion” metric reflects the proportion of respondents who anticipate price increases relative to those who expect declines, and the January findings show a clear tilt toward rising costs.

Maize and maize-based products, critical staples in Kenya, are also expected to record further price increases. Items such as green maize, dry maize grain and maize flour are projected to rise over the February–March period.

The survey notes that maize products had already posted modest price increases in January compared to December 2025, and further upward adjustments are anticipated due to ongoing seasonal pressures and supply dynamics. Given maize flour’s central role in preparing ugali, a staple dish in many homes, even small price shifts can significantly impact household spending.

In addition to vegetables and maize products, the CBK survey indicates that dairy prices are likely to climb. Both fresh packaged cow milk and fresh unpackaged milk are expected to record price increases in the coming weeks. The dairy sector, like crop farming, is sensitive to weather patterns, as dry conditions can reduce pasture availability and increase production costs for farmers.

Other fresh produce items, including green grams and beans, are also forecast to edge upwards. The report highlights supply constraints and weather-related challenges as the main contributing factors. As harvest volumes decline in certain regions, traders may pass on higher sourcing costs to consumers.

However, not all commodities are expected to see notable price movements. The survey found that prices for sugar, wheat flour, cooking oil, cooking fat and bread remained relatively stable in January, with minimal changes recorded compared to the previous month. The CBK does not anticipate sharp increases in these items in the immediate term, offering some relief to consumers amid broader food price pressures.

The Agriculture Sector Survey was conducted between January 19 and 23, 2026, and gathered responses from 320 participants across key food-producing and trading regions in the country. Respondents cited adverse weather, specifically the prolonged sunny and dry spell, as the primary driver behind the anticipated price hikes. Many also pointed to rising overall inflation as an underlying factor influencing price expectations.

“The proportion expecting overall inflation to increase in the next three months stood at 62 per cent in the January 2026 survey compared to 63 per cent in the December 2025 survey,” the report noted. Although slightly lower than the previous month, the figure indicates that a majority of respondents still expect inflationary pressures to persist in the near term.

“Respondents who expected overall inflation to increase one month ahead cited seasonal factors, that is, the prevailing sunny and dry weather conditions, which could cause scarcity of some food commodities,” the CBK added.

Despite the short-term outlook pointing to higher food prices, farmers remain cautiously optimistic. Many expressed confidence that the upcoming long rains season could improve acreage and boost agricultural output, provided rainfall conditions are favourable. A successful long rains season would likely replenish supplies of vegetables, maize and other crops, potentially stabilising or even easing prices later in the year.

For now, however, consumers may need to brace for modest but broad-based increases in the cost of fresh produce and select staple foods as seasonal and inflationary pressures converge in the early months of 2026.

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