Early And Heavy Rains Expected As Kenyans Issued Weather Alert

Kenyans may want to get their umbrellas out earlier than usual this year. Fresh forecasts suggest the country’s October-December rains could arrive well ahead of schedule, with some regions already expected to see wet weather by September.

Weather analyst Maithya wa Vilivū says the latest round of multi-model forecasts, released this August, points to an early start to the OND season, especially along the coast and in North Eastern Kenya.

Somalia, eastern Ethiopia, and pockets of Kenya usually see the earliest signs before the rains build strength and push further inland from early October onward.

“One of the key parameters we use to know when the OND rainy season will begin is the consistent emergence of rain bands in Eastern Ethiopia, Somaliland, and Somalia,” Maithya said.

Those rain bands aren’t random; he noted that they mark the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone shifting south, moving away from the Sahel and the Ethiopian highlands and edging toward Equatorial Africa, Kenya included.

What’s catching forecasters’ attention now is the volume expected even before the season officially kicks off. September rainfall in the affected areas could run above average, in some spots by as much as 20mm over the long-term norm.

“These rains are expected to intensify quickly and spread out to other parts of Kenya from early October and continue to drench the lands all the way to January 2027,” Maithya added.

Internationally, meteorologists have been watching a strengthening El Niño alongside a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a pairing that tends to spell trouble, or at least unpredictability, for rainfall across East Africa.

The World Meteorological Organisation flagged as much in its Global Seasonal Climate Update on July 31, warning that El Niño could intensify into a strong event sometime between August and October, with knock-on effects for rainfall patterns worldwide.

Closer to home, the WMO’s outlook for Kenya and the broader Greater Horn of Africa pointed to wetter-than-usual conditions through October, raising the odds of heavier downpours, localized flooding, and general disruption in the months ahead.

When it turns positive, the waters off East Africa’s coast warm up while those near Indonesia cool down, and that temperature imbalance tends to pull more moisture toward this part of the world. Combined with El Niño, it’s a mix the WMO says is worth watching closely.

Maithya cautioned that while the overall signal is clear, the finer details- how intense, how long, exactly where- will only sharpen once shorter-range forecasts start coming in over the next few weeks.

In the meantime, Kenya’s own meteorological service has already been tracking wet weather on a shorter horizon. Its outlook for July 28 to August 3 flagged afternoon thunderstorms in Nairobi, Kisumu, Kakamega, Bungoma, Uasin Gishu, Nakuru, and Turkana, with several western counties expected to see rain overnight as well.

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